Foreign Influence on Protest Activity: An Overview

In the August 2022 edition of the White Paper Series, the Intelligence & Analysis Division examines the relationship between social media, protest activity, and foreign adversaries. Adversaries such as Russia, China, and Iran have bolstered misinformation, disinformation, and malinformation on social media to create chaos, confusion, and division in the U.S. These social media strategies, which generate a more intense and divisive virtual environment, have sought to make U.S. society more polarized, influence U.S. political decisions, delegitimate democratic institutions, and create confusion. This promotion of divisiveness by foreign adversaries has contributed to the formation of protests, rallies, and other similar gatherings in the U.S.

Hazard Seasonality: An Overview

In the July 2022 edition of the White Paper Series, the Intelligence & Analysis Division examines the subject of meteorological hazard seasonality as it relates to the emergency management process. An understanding of hazard seasons allows planners to predict peak occurrences and drive active risk reduction processes. Additionally, hazard seasonality can be affected by short-term trends such El Niño/ La Niña, as well as the long-term impacts of climate change. This paper provides a brief overview of hazard seasonality (as well as case studies related to flooding and wildfires) in order to enhance stakeholders’ understanding.

Nation-State Research Activities as a Deniable Cover for Espionage

In the June 2022 edition of the White Paper Series, the Intelligence & Analysis Division examines the foreign nation-state practice of utilizing legitimate scientific/research objectives, programs, and vessels as a deniable cover for espionage activities. U.S. adversaries such as Russia and China have been accused of such activity in recent years, to include the suspected tapping of undersea communications cables and the placing of undersea acoustic sensors near U.S. Naval hubs. In many of these cases, “dual-use” technology capable of both scientific and intelligence-gathering purposes was utilized, allowing deniability for U.S. adversaries.

State-Sanctioned Hacking Groups: An Overview

In the April 2022 edition of the White Paper Series, the Intelligence & Analysis Division examines state-sanctioned hacking groups, which can serve the objectives of nation-state adversaries, without explicit direction, while receiving safe haven and (likely) tacit approval from their host nation. Groups such as this were involved in the 2021 ransomware attack on Colonial Pipeline, as well as the defacing of a U.S. government website following the killing of a high-profile Iranian military leader by the U.S.

Terrorist Targeting of U.S. Utilities Infrastructure

In the March 2022 edition of the White Paper Series, the Intelligence & Analysis Division examines the targeting of utilities infrastructure by transnational and domestic terrorist groups and individuals. Utilities infrastructure remains a relatively soft target, which if exploited by terrorists could have devastating effects on public health and safety, as well as economic impacts.

North Korea Situation Update

In the February 2022 edition of the White Paper Series, the Intelligence & Analysis Division examines a recent cluster of North Korean missile tests that occurred last month, breaking a period of limited testing activity. The paper also briefly examines the history of North Korea’s missile testing program, as well as the associated technological advancements increasing the threat to DoD assets in the region.

The Russia-Ukraine Crisis: Background, Current Situation, Outlook

In October 2021, long-simmering tensions between Russia and Ukraine began to reignite following a Russian military buildup near Ukraine’s border and related provocations. These tensions have also garnered significant international attention due to the potential for a Russian invasion as well as the ensuing Ukrainian and international response (to include a potential NATO response).

DoD Supply Chain Disruptions

The 2021 supply chain crisis has had severe negative impacts on many organizations worldwide. Among those organizations being negatively impacted is the United States Department of Defense (DoD). The DoD supply chain brings in extremely important materials and equipment that support all military operations.

Afghanistan Geopolitical Update

The recent U.S. withdrawal of military forces from Afghanistan and subsequent Taliban takeover of the country has created an environment in which a number of foreign nation-states may seek to exploit geopolitical opportunities. The current environment in Afghanistan provides a number of opportunities for U.S. adversaries such as China, Russia, and Iran to exploit, particularly with regards to military, economic, and diplomatic relationships.

2020 Election Series: January Domestic Threat Activity Update

President-Elect Joe Biden was declared the provisional winner of the 2020 Presidential Election. Many voices among the media, social media, and even elected leadership expected civil unrest after the election. Research suggests that Americans on opposite sides of the ideological spectrums have adopted increasingly hostile attitudes towards one another, with some outright advocating political violence.