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Accidental Disruption: An Overview

Harry Mochel on September 12, 2022

In the September 2022 edition of the White Paper Series, the Intelligence & Analysis Division examines the subject of accidental disruptions affecting critical systems and infrastructure. An accidental disruption is defined as the unintentional failure or loss of technology, systems, and utilities due to aging equipment and infrastructure, harsh environmental conditions coupled with inadequate maintenance, negligence, or other accidental events.  As seen in the paper’s case studies, accidental disruptions can have significant impacts to the environment, as well as public health and safety. This paper provides a baseline understanding of accidental disruptions and their effects.

Accidental Disruption: An Overview

Foreign Influence on Protest Activity: An Overview

Harry Mochel on August 15, 2022

In the August 2022 edition of the White Paper Series, the Intelligence & Analysis Division examines the relationship between social media, protest activity, and foreign adversaries. Adversaries such as Russia, China, and Iran have bolstered misinformation, disinformation, and malinformation on social media to create chaos, confusion, and division in the U.S. These social media strategies, which generate a more intense and divisive virtual environment, have sought to make U.S. society more polarized, influence U.S. political decisions, delegitimate democratic institutions, and create confusion. This promotion of divisiveness by foreign adversaries has contributed to the formation of protests, rallies, and other similar gatherings in the U.S.

Foreign Influence on Protest Activity: An Overview

Hazard Seasonality: An Overview

Harry Mochel on July 1, 2022

In the July 2022 edition of the White Paper Series, the Intelligence & Analysis Division examines the subject of meteorological hazard seasonality as it relates to the emergency management process. An understanding of hazard seasons allows planners to predict peak occurrences and drive active risk reduction processes. Additionally, hazard seasonality can be affected by short-term trends such El Niño/ La Niña, as well as the long-term impacts of climate change. This paper provides a brief overview of hazard seasonality (as well as case studies related to flooding and wildfires) in order to enhance stakeholders’ understanding.

Hazard Seasonality: An Overview

Nation-State Research Activities as a Deniable Cover for Espionage

Harry Mochel on June 1, 2022

In the June 2022 edition of the White Paper Series, the Intelligence & Analysis Division examines the foreign nation-state practice of utilizing legitimate scientific/research objectives, programs, and vessels as a deniable cover for espionage activities. U.S. adversaries such as Russia and China have been accused of such activity in recent years, to include the suspected tapping of undersea communications cables and the placing of undersea acoustic sensors near U.S. Naval hubs. In many of these cases, “dual-use” technology capable of both scientific and intelligence-gathering purposes was utilized, allowing deniability for U.S. adversaries.

Nation-State Research Activities as a Deniable Cover for Espionage

State-Sanctioned Hacking Groups: An Overview

Harry Mochel on April 1, 2022

In the April 2022 edition of the White Paper Series, the Intelligence & Analysis Division examines state-sanctioned hacking groups, which can serve the objectives of nation-state adversaries, without explicit direction, while receiving safe haven and (likely) tacit approval from their host nation. Groups such as this were involved in the 2021 ransomware attack on Colonial Pipeline, as well as the defacing of a U.S. government website following the killing of a high-profile Iranian military leader by the U.S.

State-Sanctioned Hacking Groups: An Overview

Terrorist Targeting of U.S. Utilities Infrastructure

Harry Mochel on March 1, 2022

In the March 2022 edition of the White Paper Series, the Intelligence & Analysis Division examines the targeting of utilities infrastructure by transnational and domestic terrorist groups and individuals. Utilities infrastructure remains a relatively soft target, which if exploited by terrorists could have devastating effects on public health and safety, as well as economic impacts.

Terrorist Targeting of U.S. Utilities Infrastructure

North Korea Situation Update

Harry Mochel on February 1, 2022

In the February 2022 edition of the White Paper Series, the Intelligence & Analysis Division examines a recent cluster of North Korean missile tests that occurred last month, breaking a period of limited testing activity. The paper also briefly examines the history of North Korea’s missile testing program, as well as the associated technological advancements increasing the threat to DoD assets in the region.

North Korea Situation Update

The Russia-Ukraine Crisis: Background, Current Situation, Outlook

rmcwebdev on January 1, 2022

In October 2021, long-simmering tensions between Russia and Ukraine began to reignite following a Russian military buildup near Ukraine’s border and related provocations. These tensions have also garnered significant international attention due to the potential for a Russian invasion as well as the ensuing Ukrainian and international response (to include a potential NATO response).

The Russia-Ukraine Crisis: Background, Current Situation, Outlook

DoD Supply Chain Disruptions

rmcwebdev on December 26, 2021

The 2021 supply chain crisis has had severe negative impacts on many organizations worldwide. Among those organizations being negatively impacted is the United States Department of Defense (DoD). The DoD supply chain brings in extremely important materials and equipment that support all military operations.

DoD Supply Chain Disruptions

Afghanistan Geopolitical Update

rmcwebdev on December 1, 2021

The recent U.S. withdrawal of military forces from Afghanistan and subsequent Taliban takeover of the country has created an environment in which a number of foreign nation-states may seek to exploit geopolitical opportunities. The current environment in Afghanistan provides a number of opportunities for U.S. adversaries such as China, Russia, and Iran to exploit, particularly with regards to military, economic, and diplomatic relationships.

Afghanistan Geopolitical Update

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