Contact Us
Menu

Threat Primer: Hizballah

Andrew Kovacs on January 12, 2024

Introduction
In early October 2023, the Palestinian political and militant group Hamas launched a large-scale attack into Israel from the Gaza Strip. Following the initial attack, the Lebanese political and militant group Hizballah immediately became involved in the conflict, primarily along Israel’s northern border with Lebanon. This paper is not intended to address Hizballah’s ongoing involvement in conflict between Hamas and Israel, but rather is designed to provide historical context regarding Hizballah and its activities. In this paper, RMC’s Intelligence & Analysis Division will examine Hizballah’s origins, ideology, leadership, funding, organization, and strength. Additionally, this paper will provide an overview of Hizballah’s political and militant activities, and briefly review some of the group’s notable attacks.

Origins
Hizballah (which translates to “Party of Allah” or “Party of God”) is a Lebanese Shia militia. In 1943, Shia Muslims were among the groups within the National Pact (an agreement that designated different official positions among the many sectarian groups in the region as part of Lebanon’s state formation process). As the third-largest sectarian group and among the poorest, Shia Muslims frequently felt underrepresented. In the early 1960s, Imam Musa al-Sadr formed Amal, the Shia militant organization from which Hizballah would eventually split. Amal and other groups arose in the 1975-1990 Lebanese Civil War, which pitted political, religious, and ethnic groups against each other in shifting alliances affected by outside influences and multinational peacekeeping forces. This includes Israel’s invasion of Lebanon following the Coastal Road Massacre of 1978, in which Palestinian militants based out of Lebanon murdered civilians near Tel Aviv. Following conflicts with the Israeli Defense Force (IDF), several leaders of Amal, led by Husain al-Musawi, broke away to form a new, more militant organization called Islamic Amal, which recruited from other revolutionary Shia organizations. After its own revolution, Iran wanted an alternative to the original Amal, which refused obedience to Ayatollah Khomeini. In late 1982, following the Israeli invasion of Lebanon, 1,500 members of the Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) arrived to support and train Islamic Amal. It remains unclear whether a group of Islamic Amal members split away from the lager group to form Hizballah or whether Islamic Amal was simply an earlier iteration of Hizballah. Many date the formation of Hizballah in late 1982 (concurrent with these events), but the group’s official manifesto was not released until 1985. Led by religious clerics, including Sheikh Subhi al-Tufayli and Sayyed Abbas al-Musawi, the group wanted to adopt Iranian doctrine in Lebanon, including the use of terror. Hizballah is often credited with being among the first groups to use suicide bombings, including the 1983 attack on the United States Marine Corps (USMC) barracks in Beirut, Lebanon. Iran helped develop the group to support its jihad against Israel. Located in Ba’albek in the northern Beqa’a valley, the combined forces that would become Hizballah brought Iranian-Islamic influences to the area and constituted the core of the organization in Lebanon.1,2,3,4

Ideology
Hizballah follows a form of Shia Islam, which asserts that the Prophet Muhammad’s cousin (and son-in-law) should have been his successor. This belief evolved into Imamah, which holds that descendants of Muhammad are Islam’s rightful rulers. Shia Islam is the second-largest branch of the faith, with 10–15% of believers. Twelver Shi’ism is the largest, comprising about 85% of them. The Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini of Iran espoused a unique strain of Twelverism called Velayat-e-faqih, which calls for theocratic government in accordance with Sharia law. Hizballah continues to espouse similar politics to those of the Ayatollah, which drove the Iranian Revolution.

Despite its hardline stance, Hizballah has made common cause with other Islamic and secular Arab groups, along with left-wing organizations. Like Iran, it calls for the eradication of Israel. Its animosity towards the Jewish people is rooted in religious conflicts dating back to the ancient world. Hizballah officials have tried to distinguish between their hostility towards Israel and outright antisemitism. However, most observers doubt these assertions. In addition to operating as an armed militia, Hizballah also functions as an active political party within Lebanon. In 2009, the group updated its manifesto with language that called for “true democracy.” In 2022, Hizballah maintained its 13 seats in Lebanon’s 128-member Parliament. The U.S. Department of State still designates Hizballah as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO).1

Leadership
Hizballah’s organizational structure is composed of nesting committees and subcommittees. The Shura Council is at the top, with five (5) subordinate Councils. These include the Executive, Judicial, Parliamentary, Political, and Jihad Councils. Their respective chairs are five (5) of the seven (7) members of the Shura Council, along with the Secretary General and the Political Advisor to the Secretary General. The current Secretary General is Hassan Nasrallah, who has held the position since 1992, with Hussein al-Khalil serving as Political Advisor. Each member of the Shura Council oversees sub-entities within their own branch that handle Hizballah’s affairs across multiple domains.5

The Shura Council’s decisions (which can be made either unanimously or by majority) are final and religiously binding. The Council is subordinate only to the Supreme Leader of Iran, who has the authority to resolve deadlocks. The Shura Council first began convening in 1986. It was later integrated into Hizballah’s general reorganization. In 1989, a rule was adopted whereby the Council would have nine (9) members, each elected for a single year by Hizballah’s internal leadership. The Council’s membership was later reduced to seven (7) members serving two (2)-year terms, then extended to three (3)-year terms sometime between 1993 and 2003. There are rumors of an eighth member who remains anonymous, who may be the head of Hizballah’s military affairs. When the Council votes on matters of war and peace, it is presided by two (2) members of the IRGC.

Funding
Hizballah has its own investment portfolio, and it receives donations from individuals, companies, and organizations. It also operates a global organized crime network of illegal drug trafficking, weapons trafficking, and money laundering. It reportedly has hubs in Europe, Africa, and Latin America. Of particular interest is its trafficking of an amphetamine-type stimulant, sold as “captagon,” along the Syria-Lebanon border. It is a popular recreational drug among the young affluent populations of the Middle East. 3,6,7

Iran has spent billions to fund Hizballah’s activities, in addition to other militant groups such as Hamas. Some, like Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), act as proxies for Tehran’s efforts to destabilize the Middle East and target Israel and American assets in the region. Iran’s funding reaches groups such as Hizballah through shell companies, front groups, fake charities, virtual currencies, real estate, investments, money laundering, and hawala networks. Between August 2021 and June 2023, Hamas and PIJ reportedly raised over $130 million in cryptocurrency and moved millions among themselves. This reportedly included $12 million in cryptocurrency from PIJ to Hizballah.7

In May 2022, the U.S. Department of the Treasury sanctioned an “oil for terror” network between Iran and Syria that benefitted Hizballah and other proxies. The scheme involved the shipment of Iranian oil to Syria via Russian companies. Syria would furnish the profits to the IRGC, who would distribute the funds to Hizballah and Hamas. This arrangement enabled Russia to evade U.S. sanctions and allowed Iran to fund terrorism.7

Organization and Strength
Hizballah’s Executive Council manages the day-to-day operations of the group (with the exception of military operations). The Executive Council’s activities are all designed to support the Jihad Council’s military operations in some form or fashion. The Executive Council oversees a social unit which supports infrastructure projects, programs for wounded and deceased (“Martyred”) Hizballah fighters, and other social projects aimed at garnering support and good will towards the organization. The Islamic Health Unit operates several hospital systems complete with local clinics, dental facilities, and other social health programs. The Education Unit provides scholarships and financial aid for college and technical programs, as well as operating multiple primary and secondary schools for children. These educational opportunities coincide with the need for technical skills for Hizballah operations. The Executive Council also oversees numerous companies which are deeply rooted in the Lebanese economy providing an appearance of legitimacy while providing funds for Hizballah operations. Many of these companies are currently under economic sanctions by the U.S. and other countries.5,8,9

Hizballah’s Political Council operates both independently of, and intertwined with, the Lebanese government. Lebanon’s poor economic conditions and multiple factions within the Lebanese political system leaves the legitimate government relatively weak and disjointed. Hizballah actively participates in this system and continues efforts to increase influence in the Lebanese government. Hizballah will act alone, without support of the Lebanese government, when opportunities arise to further Hizballah’s political, social and militant goals that otherwise would not find support or consensus within the Lebanese government.5,10

Hizballah’s Judicial Council operates independently of the Lebanese government in Hizballah-controlled areas, especially in Shia communities. This council is made of tribunals responsible for the implementation and enforcement of Sharia Law and can impose fines, imprisonment, and corporal punishment including sentence of death. The structure of the Judicial Council includes local courts, regional courts and a Supreme Court appointed by the Shura Council.5,11

Hizballah’s Parliamentary Council is responsible for the selection of the group’s candidates running for election in Lebanon and ensuring that Hizballah’s elected representatives follow the will of the Shura Council. Hassan Nasrallah has made public statements explaining that Hizballah’s elected leaders are subordinate to the Shura Council’s authority. Under the Parliamentary Council is the Governmental Committee, which advises Hizballah’s ministers and seeks to improve Hizballah’s presence in Lebanese internal affairs.5,12

Hizballah’s Jihad Council is also known as the External Security Organization or Unit 910. The Jihad Council is responsible for military operations including the planning, coordination and execution of terrorist attacks, operations supporting the war in Syria, intelligence operations along the Israeli border, and the coordination of logistical support from Iran. The commander of the IRGC’s Qods Force routinely attends meetings of the Jihad Council. The structure of subordinate units closely resembles a military structure consistent with foreign nation-state militaries and including headquarters, training, logistics, intelligence, communications, infantry, armor, air defense, special operations, and specialized units such as electronic warfare.3,5,13

Estimates of Hizballah’s military strength range 20,000 to 40,000 from various sources. According to Israel Defense Forces estimates, Hizballah has a total strength of 30,000 of which 15,000 are active fighters. Hizballah also has an international network of supporters and operatives engaged in various political, social, financial and criminal activities estimated by the U.S. Department of State to number in the tens of thousands.3,5,14

Political Activities
Domestically, Hizballah is part of the elected Lebanese Parliament. Hizballah does not hold enough seats in the Lebanese Parliament to elect their nominee to the Presidency but has enough votes to prevent any other political faction from electing their Presidential nominee. The presidency has remained vacant since October 2022 due to the political deadlock and caretaker government with limited powers is maintaining governmental operations. This allows Hizballah to continue operations without government interference and to use their influence within the Lebanese government to further their goals.15

Internationally, Hizballah has expanded its influence beyond Lebanon, particularly supporting militant operations in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen. Iranian influence is the driving factor behind Hizballah’s expansion. This expansion leaves Hizballah weaker domestically in Lebanon as precious resources and funding are being used abroad during a time of turmoil at home. Hizballah has established operations in the U.S., Europe, South America, and Asia. Much of this activity is focused on spreading their ideology, as well as criminal enterprises, particularly narcotics, to raise funding for the larger organization.14,16

Militant Activities
Hizballah was designated as a foreign terrorist organization by the U.S. Department of State in October of 1997, followed by more than 60 other countries since. Notably, the Arab League and Gulf Cooperation Council also consider Hizballah a terrorist organization. While Hizballah is known for bombings, aircraft hijackings, kidnappings, and narcotics smuggling, it also resembles a nation-state military. In recent years Hizballah has participated and supported conflicts in Syria, Yemen and Iraq. Approximately 1,700 Hizballah fighters have been killed and 6,000 injured in these conflicts since 2011. While these losses are significant, the extensive combat experience gained potentially makes Hizballah a more potent paramilitary force. Coupled with training and logistical support from Iran, Hizballah is capable of operating military equipment not typically associated with terrorist organizations. Hizballah fighters have experience with a variety of older Soviet tanks, anti-tank missile systems, artillery, rockets, and explosive devices. Hizballah also has a robust intelligence collection network to support their kinetic capabilities. Since Hamas’ attack on Israel on 07 October 2023, Hizballah has conducted limited attacks that have led to skirmishes with the IDF along the Israel-Lebanon border. These attacks include Hizballah’s first use of Burkan missiles and attack drones.4,14

Notable Attacks
Hizballah has conducted several attacks in Beirut that brought the organization to the forefront of terrorist activity, including the April 1983 bombing of the U.S. Embassy in Lebanon, the aforementioned October 1983 bombing of the USMC barracks, and the September 1984 bombing of the U.S. Embassy annex. Since then, Hizballah has conducted multiple attacks, often targeting Jewish interests and political rivals in Lebanon. Hizballah has been credited with the July 1994 bombing of a Jewish community center in Buenos Aires, Argentina, which killed 95 people, and the July 2012 bombing of a tour bus carrying Israeli tourists, killing six (6) and wounding 33. Examples of political attacks include the February 2005 bombing, which killed the Lebanese Prime Minister and 21 others, and the October 2012 bombing, which killed the Lebanese Internal Security Forces Information Bureau chief and eight (8) others. Recently, attacks of this nature have been sparce due to Hizballah’s involvement in Syria and support for operations in Yemen and Iraq.2,17,18

Outlook
An understanding of Hizballah, its origins, its structure, its capabilities, and its historical activities are fundamental to understanding the group’s role in the ongoing conflict in Israel. RMC’s Intelligence & Analysis Division continues to monitor the ongoing conflict and relevant geopolitical developments. Additionally, the Intelligence & Analysis Division continues to analyze potential threats to the U.S. and its interests as a result of the conflict, to include Iran-backed militia attacks on U.S. forces in the Middle East, as well as potential terrorism, hate crime, and protest activity/civil disturbance concerns in the U.S. homeland. Finally, the Intelligence & Analysis Division acknowledges the potential for Iranian involvement to escalate the current situation into a wider conflict.

Additional White Papers regarding the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict and associated developments may be produced as the situation continues to unfold.

Sources

1. Robinson, K. (2023, October 14). What is Hezbollah? Council on Foreign Relations. Retrieved from https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-hezbollah.

2. Mapping Militant Organizations. (2019, July). Hezbollah. Stanford University. Retrieved from https://cisac.fsi.stanford.edu/mappingmilitants/profiles/hezbollah.

3. Congressional Research Service. (2023, January 11). Lebanese Hezbollah. Congressional Research Service. Retrieved from https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF10703.

4. Jewish Virtual Library. (2023, November 08). Hezbollah: History & Overview. Jewish Virtual Library. Retrieved from https://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/history-and-overview-of-hezbollah#leadership.

5. Eye on Hezbollah. (2023). Organizational Chart. Eye on Hezbollah. Retrieved from https://hezbollah.org/organizational-chart.

6. U.S. Department of Justice. (2003, September). Fenethylline and the Middle East: A brief summary. Office of Justice Programs. Retrieved from https://www.ojp.gov/ncjrs/virtual-library/abstracts/fenethylline-and-middle-east-brief-summary.

7. Monroe, B. (2023, November 01). Unraveling a complex web: A primer on Hamas funding sources,
Iranian support, global connections and compliance concerns, considerations. Association of Certified Financial Crime Specialists. Retrieved from https://www.acfcs.org/unraveling-a-complex-web-a-primer-on-hamas-funding-sources-iranian-support-global-connections-and-compliance-concerns-considerations.

8. Beeri, Ti. (n.d.) Hezbollah Executive Council. Alma Research and Education Center. Retrieved from https://israel-alma.org/?s=executive+council.

9. Flanigan S. and Abdel-Samad, M. (n.d.). Hezbollah’s social jihad: Nonprofits as resistance organizations. Middle East Policy Council. Retrieved from https://mepc.org/journal/hezbollahs-social-jihad-nonprofits-resistance-organizations.

10. Beeri, T. (2022, June 06). Hezbollah – the Political Council. Alma Research and Education Center. Retrieved from https://israel-alma.org/2022/06/07/hezbollah-the-political-council/.

11. Beeri, T. (2022, June 02). Hezbollah’s Judicial Council. Alma Research and Education Center. Retrieved from https://israel-alma.org/2022/06/02/council-tribunals-can-impose-fines-prison-incarceration-and-even-death-sentences/.

12. Beeri, T. (2022, June 06). Hezbollah – Parliamentary Council. Alma Research and Education Center. Retrieved from https://israel-alma.org/2022/06/06/the-role-of-the-parliamentary-council-is-to-oversee-the-parliamentary-activities-of-the-organization-and-is-composed-of-mps-and-ministers-past-and-present/.

13. Beeri, T. (2023, November 27). Hezbollah’s General Staff – The Jihad Council and its main subordinate units. Alma Research and Education Center. Retrieved from https://israel-alma.org/2023/11/27/hezbollahs-general-staff-the-jihad-council-and-its-main-subordinate-units/.

14. Israel Defense Forces. (2017, February 13). Hezbollah: Get to know our most complicated adversary. Israeli Defense Forces. Retrieved from https://www.idf.il/en/mini-sites/hezbollah-and-lebanon-an-in-depth-examination-under-hassan-nasrallah-s-leadership/hezbollah-get-to-know-our-most-complicated-adversary/.

15. Kotrikadze, E. (2023, November 03). Hezbollah’s record on war and politics. The Wilson Center. Retrieved from https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/hezbollahs-record-war-politics.

16. Byman, D. (2022, November). Hezbollah’s dilemmas. Brookings Institute. Retrieved from https://www.brookings.edu/articles/hezbollahs-dilemmas/.

17. U.S. Director of National Intelligence. (n.d.). Lebanese Hizballah: Select worldwide operational activity, 1983-2017. Office of the Director of National Intelligence. Retrieved from https://www.dni.gov/nctc/groups/032004_Hizballah_Activity-Interactive-NCTC/index.html#/.

18. U.S. Director of National Intelligence. (2022, September). Counter terrorism guide – Lebanese Hizballah. Office of the Director of National Intelligence. Retrieved from https://www.dni.gov/nctc/ ftos/lebanese_hizballah_fto.html.

Threat Primer: Hamas

Andrew Kovacs on December 4, 2023

Introduction
The Palestinian political and militant group Hamas re-entered the international spotlight in early October 2023 when the group launched a large-scale attack into Israel from the Gaza Strip (a Palestinian territory that shares a border with Israel). This paper is not intended to address the ongoing conflict between Hamas and Israel, rather, it is designed to provide historical context regarding Hamas and its activities. In this paper, RMC’s Intelligence & Analysis Division will examine Hamas’ origins, ideology, leadership, funding, organization, and strength (in terms of manpower). Additionally, this paper will provide an overview of Hamas’ political and militant activities, and briefly review some of the group’s notable attacks.

Origins
In December 1987, Palestinian cleric Sheikh Ahmed Yassin founded Harakat al-Muqawama al-Islamiya (commonly known by its acronym “Hamas” or the all-capitalized “HAMAS”) as the Muslim Brotherhood’s political arm in Gaza. Initially, Hamas was established as an alternative to Islamic Jihad (PIJ), a group whose violent resistance of Israel threatened to drive Palestinian support away from the Muslim Brotherhood. Following the first intifada (a Palestinian uprising against Israeli possession of the West Bank, Gaza, and East Jerusalem) Hamas emerged as the primary domestic opposition force to Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat and his secular nationalist Fatah movement. Hamas differentiated itself from Arafat and the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO), who were negotiating with Israel in the early 1990s, by using violence against Israeli civilian and military targets to disrupt peace talks. Following efforts to bolster its violent resistance, including engaging in suicide bombings beginning in April 1993, the United States designated the Sunni extremist movement as a foreign terrorist organization in 1997.1,2,3,4

Since Hamas’ founding, the group has preserved its primary base of political support and its military command in the Gaza Strip. Following Arafat’s death in 2004, Hamas began engaging in politics. Shortly after the election of Fatah’s Mahmoud Abbas as Palestinian Authority (PA) president and Israel’s withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, Hamas won the Palestinian Legislative Council elections over Fatah in 2006. Following the victory, Hamas acquired control of PA ministries in Gaza and violently expelled the PA and Fatah from Gaza in 2007.1,4,5

Ideology
The Covenant of the Islamic Resistance Movement, a document signed in August 1988, details Hamas’ ideology and goals. According to the covenant’s introduction, Hamas’ ideology is rooted in fundamental Islamic principles, as the group looks to fulfill its responsibilities by “striving for the sake of its Creator.” Hamas’ primary goal in its “struggle against the Jews” is to “raise the banner of Allah over every inch of Palestine” through an allegiance to Islam and support from the Arab and Islamic world. Furthermore, Article Eleven of the covenant specifies that the land of Palestine would be governed under Islamic Sharia (law) and preserved for future Muslim generations until Judgement Day. Therefore, Hamas strongly opposes the idea of a secular Palestine and believes that no part of the land can be given up.6

Hamas believes that Palestinian liberation cannot be achieved through peaceful initiatives and international conferences, as they directly contradict Hamas’ principles and are a “waste of time.” Therefore, peace agreements between Arab countries and Israel are viewed as “treacherous.” Lastly, while Hamas states in its covenant that all religions can safely coexist under Islamic rule, Article 28 declares that “Israel, Judaism and Jews challenge Islam and the Moslem people.”6

In an effort to soften its image and better connect with the outside world, Hamas released a new document of principles and policies in May 2017. While Hamas’ maintained its goal to completely liberate the land “from the river to the sea” (referring to the entirety of the land that comprises Israel, the Gaza Strip, and the West Bank), the new document did not mention the Muslim Brotherhood, sought to distinguish between Jewish people and Zionism, and accepted the provisional establishment of a Palestinian state “with Jerusalem as its capital along the lines of the 4th of June 1967.” However, Hamas advocated that “resistance and jihad” continued to remain a right and did not acknowledge Israel’s right to exist in any part of the land.7,8,9

Leadership
Hamas’ leadership is comprised of officials operating in exile, such as Palestinian refugee camps in Lebanon, Doha, Qatar, and Cairo, Egypt, and individuals managing the affairs in Gaza and the West Bank. The current political chief, Ismail Haniyeh, has been the group’s leader since 2017. Haniyeh has served from Doha, Qatar, since 2020, as Egypt reportedly prevents his movement into and out of Gaza. Open-source reports also note that some Hamas officials operate in Qatar and Turkey. Other leaders include military wing leaders Marwan Issa and Mohammed Deif, Lebanon branch head Saleh al-Arouri, and Political Bureau External Region chief Khaled Mashal. In Gaza, Yahya Sinwar manages day-to-day affairs as the Political Bureau chief, while Issam al-Da’alis serves as de facto prime minister.2,3

Funding
Hamas is restricted from receiving funds that the U.S. and European Union provide to the PLO in the West Bank. As a result, the group’s financing is reportedly driven by Palestinian expatriates and private donors in the Persian Gulf, Islamic charities that channel funds to Hamas-backed social service groups, and a few foreign nations. Furthermore, after Egypt and Israel initiated a blockade of Gaza in the 2000s, Hamas started taxing goods transported through tunnels from the Egyptian crossing into Gaza. While most tunnels were shut down on Egypt’s territory when Egyptian President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi took power in 2013, Egypt started permitting the importation of some commercial goods into Gaza in 2018. Lastly, Hamas has increasingly used cryptocurrencies, credit cards, or contrived trade deals to fund their operations. Between December 2021 and April 2023, Israel seized about 190 cryptocurrency accounts that it indicated were associated with Hamas.2,5,10

According to open-source reporting, Hamas has historically received significant funds, weapons, and training from Iran. While the Hamas-Iran relationship suffered after Hamas refused to support Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in the Syrian civil war, their alliance was reportedly revived around 2017. Per the U.S. Department of State, as of February 2023, Iran contributes up to $100 million annually in combined support to groups such as Hamas, PIJ, and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine-General Command. In addition to Iran, Hamas has the political support of Turkey. Turkish President Erdogan has permitted Hamas’ leadership to live in Turkey, has met with Hamas officials, and refused to describe the group’s actions as terrorism. Despite Turkey’s claim that their support remains political in nature, some have accused the country of funding Hamas’ actions, including through aid diverted from the Turkish Cooperation and Coordination Agency. Qatar has also been accused of financing Hamas, with a U.S. Treasury Department official stating publicly in 2014 that Qatar “has for many years openly financed Hamas.” While Qatar has provided fuel and cash to address electricity and funding shortages in Gaza, Qatari officials have denied directly financing Hamas.11,2,4,5,12

Organization and Strength
Although the group is largely known for its militant activities, Hamas also has a variety of sociopolitical functions. Hamas governs more than 2,000,000 people in Gaza, administering various public services to include healthcare, schooling, and food banks. The general policy of Hamas is set by the group’s aforementioned Political Bureau, which is comprised of 15 members and is led by Ismail Haniyeh. The Political Bureau is elected by the Shura Council, an overarching, consultative body. The exact number of members on the Shura Council is unknown, but it is comprised of members from four (4) regional shuras. The Shura Council is elected by Hamas members and prisoners in Israeli jails. Of note, Osama Mazini, the head of the Shura Council was killed in October 2023 in the Gaza Strip during the ongoing conflict between Israeli forces and Hamas13,14,15

The armed wing of Hamas, named Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades (known as the al-Qassam Brigades for short), has an estimated 30,000 to 40,000 fighters and has existed since 1991. As of September 2022, the U.S. government’s National Counterterrorism Center estimated Hamas had a strength of 20,000 to 25,000 members.3,16,17,18

Political Activities
Hamas won the Palestinian elections in 2006, narrowly defeating rival political party Fatah (a more moderate/secular western-backed political party. This was the first time Hamas participated in elections and was also the last time that the elections were held. Hamas took over the Gaza strip the following year after Fatah forces. Hamas fighters successfully pushed out all Fatah politicians from Gaza which allowed them to prevent further political elections from occurring. The fighting between Hamas and Fatah’s militia lasted for a week, resulting in a split of the Palestinian territories. With Hamas’ new reign came new restrictive laws. Initially, they governed in accordance with the sharia-based Palestinian Basic Law. Furthermore, Hamas has made the law much more restrictive by enforcing gender segregation and putting restrictions on the way women were allowed to dress in its initial years of rule.19,20

Open-source reporting shows that the Hamas group lacked structure in its government in relation to transparency for its procurement, funding, and operations. According to a poll by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research in June 2023, one-third of Palestinians in Gaza believe that the Hamas government has been one of the most damaging organizations developed since 1984. Additionally, it was also found that while one-third would choose the PA President Mahmoud Abbas in a presidential election, more than half would vote for Hamas’ Haniyeh over Abbas.13

Militant Activities
The U.S. State Department designated Hamas (and by association, its al-Qassam Brigades) as a foreign terrorist organization in October 1997. The al-Qassam Brigades mainly participated in suicide bombing campaigns when it was first created. In recent years, Hamas has demonstrated uses of rockets, long-range missiles, and drones. The advancement of their military capabilities has influenced the damage they have been able to inflict on their targets. Prior to the recent advancement of their military capabilities, they heavily relied on guerrilla warfare tactics. Rockets, explosives, snipers, and even underground tunnels were also used to carry out attacks.3,16

Open-source reporting indicates that Hamas still maintains and utilizes its extensive underground tunnel system in Gaza to this day. Hamas uses these tunnels to store their arsenal of launch platforms, rockets, weapons, and other supplies. The tunnels are also used to house and transport Hamas militants, giving the group the capability to operate “under the radar” in the event of a major ground attack.16

Notable Attacks
In recent years, Hamas has had a demonstrated history of surprise attacks on Israel. In December 2008, Hamas fired rockets at the southern Israeli town of Sderot. In July 2014, Hamas kidnapped and killed three (3) Israeli teenagers. In May 2021, Israel launched air raids on Gaza in retaliation to what it said were rockets fired from Gaza by Hamas. Hamas had fired rockets towards Israel after Israel refused to withdraw their security forces from the Al Aqsa Mosque compound in East Jerusalem. At the compound, security forces demonstrated acts of violence against Palestinian protestors leading to Hamas giving an ultimatum. Consequently, Hamas fired more than 4,000 rockets which led to an 11-day war with Israel.21,22,23

The University of Maryland’s Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START)’s Global Terrorism Database (GTD) tracks and categorizes terrorist attacks worldwide. For the 10-year period from 2011, the START GTD reported 218 terrorist attacks associated with Hamas and the al-Qassam Brigades, for an average of 10.9 attacks annually.24

Outlook
An understanding of Hamas, its origins, its structure, its capabilities, and its historical activities are fundamental to understanding the ongoing conflict between the political-militant group and Israeli forces in and around Gaza. RMC’s Intelligence & Analysis Division continues to monitor the ongoing conflict and relevant geopolitical developments. Additionally, the Intelligence & Analysis Division continues to analyze potential threats to the U.S. and its interests as a result of the conflict, to include Iran-backed militia attacks on U.S. forces in the Middle East, as well as potential terrorism, hate crime, and protest activity/civil disturbance concerns in the U.S. homeland. Finally, the Intelligence & Analysis Division acknowledges the potential for Iranian involvement to escalate the current situation into a wider conflict.

RMC’s Intelligence and Analysis Division also plans to release a companion Threat Primer White Paper focused on the Iran-backed militant group Hizballah in next month’s edition of the White Paper Series (dated January 2024). Additional White Papers regarding the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict and associated developments may be produced as the situation continues to unfold.

Sources

1. Zanotti, J. (2010, December 02). Hamas: Background and Issues for Congress. Congressional Research Service. Retrieved from https://sgp.fas.org/crs/mideast/R41514.pdf.

2. Robinson, K. (2023, October 31). What Is Hamas? Council on Foreign Relations. Retrieved from https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-hamas.

3. National Counterterrorism Center. (2022, September). Hamas. Retrieved from https://www.dni.gov/nctc/ftos/hamas_fto.html.

4. Congressional Research Service. (2021, March 18). The Palestinians: Background and U.S. Relations. Retrieved from https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/RL/RL34074/51.

5. U.S. State Department Bureau of Counterterrorism. (2023, February). Country Reports on Terrorism 2021. Retrieved from https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/Country_Reports_2021_Complete_MASTER.no_maps-011323-Accessible.pdf.

6. Hamas. (1988, August 18). The Covenant of the Islamic Resistance Movement. The Avalon Project. Retrieved from https://avalon.law.yale.edu/20th_century/hamas.asp.

7. Hamas. (2017, May). A Document of General Principles & Policies. Retrieved from https://palwatch.org/storage/documents/hamas%20new%20policy%20document%20010517.pdf.

8. BBC. (2017, May 01). New Hamas policy document ‘aims to soften image’. Retrieved from https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-39744551.

9. Wilson Center. (2023, October 20). Doctrine of Hamas. Retrieved from https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/doctrine-hamas.

10. Sayegh, H. A., O’Donnell, J., & Howcroft, E. (2023, October 16). Who funds Hamas? A global network of crypto, cash and charities. Reuters. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hamas-cash-to-crypto-global-finance-maze-israels-sights-2023-10-16/.

11. al-Mughrabi, N. (2017, August 28). After Syria fall-out, Hamas ties with Iran restored: Hamas chief. Reuters. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/article/us-palestinians-hamas-iran-idUSKCN1B81KC.

12. Barkey, H.J. (2023, October 25). Turkey, the United States, and the Israel-Hamas War. Council on Foreign Relations. Retrieved from https://www.cfr.org/article/turkey-united-states-and-israel-hamas-war.

13. Murphy, K. (2019, March 03). Hamas victory is built on social work. Los Angeles Times. Retrieved from https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-2006-mar-02-fg-charity2-story.html.

14. Robinson, K. (2023, October 10). What is Hamas? What to know about its origins, leaders and funding. PBS. Retrieved from https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/what-is-hamas-what-to-know-about-its-origins-leaders-and-funding.

15. Mapping Palestinian Politics. (n.d). Shura Council. European Council on Foreign Relations. Retrieved from https://ecfr.eu/special/mapping_palestinian_politics/shura_council/.

16. Axios. (2023, October 21). What to know about Hamas’ military capabilities. Retrieved from https://www.axios.com/2023/10/21/palestine-hamas-military-power.

17. Marcus, J. (2021, May 12). Israel-Gaza Violence: The Strtength and Limitations of Hamas’ Arsenal. BBC. Retrieved from https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-57092245.

18. ITV. (2023, October 13). How Do the Israeli Military and Hamas Compare in Size and Strength?. Retrieved from https://www.itv.com/news/2023-10-11/how-do-the-israeli-military-and-hamas-compare-in-size-and-strength.

19. Salam, Y. (2023, October 09). What is Hamas?. NBC News. Retrieved from https://www.nbcnews.com/news/investigations/hamas-know-group-deadliest-attack-israel-decades-rcna119628.

20. Reuters. (2023, November 06). What is the Palestinian group Hamas?. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/what-is-palestinian-group-hamas-2023-10-30/.

21. Hutchinson, B. (2023, November 07). Israel-Hamas conflict: Timeline and key developments in month of war. ABC News. Retrieved from https://abcnews.go.com/International/timeline-surprise-rocket-attack-hamas-israel/story?id=103816006.

22. Wilson, R., de Acosta, R., Leeds Matthews, A., & Newman, A. (2023, November 07). These charts show the scale of loss in the Israel-Hamas war. CNN. Retrieved from https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/these-charts-show-the-scale-of-loss-in-the-israel-hamas-war/ar-AA1jw2tf.

23. Al Jazeera. (2021, July 27). HRW accuses, Palestinians of ‘apparent war crimes’ in Gaza. Retrieved from https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/7/27/hrw-accuses-israel-of-apparent-war-crimes-in-gaza-war.

24. National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (n.d.). Global Terrorism Database. Retrieved from https://www.start.umd.edu/gtd/. 

The Changing Climate and Human Health

Andrew Kovacs on October 20, 2023

Introduction
In this paper, RMC’s Intelligence & Analysis Division will examine some of the ways in which the changing climate has impacted human health. The hazards discussed in this paper will be extreme heat, wildfires, insect-borne disease, and drought. While there are many other environmental factors that impact human health, these four were chosen to highlight the interrelated nature of hazards tied to increasing global temperatures. Analysis of both the history, current status, and likely future of these hazards will provide insight into the importance of these environmental factors on human health.

Extreme Heat
Extreme temperatures associated with heat waves and extreme heat events can impact human health in several ways. Extremely high temperatures can compromise the body’s natural ability to regulate internal temperatures. Illnesses such as heatstroke, heat exhaustion, heat cramps, and hyperthermia are the result of high internal temperatures. Chronic conditions such as respiratory disease, cardiovascular disease, diabetes-related conditions, and cerebrovascular disease can be exacerbated by extreme heat. Most individuals can adapt biologically and physically to incremental increases in average normal temperatures. However, children, older adults, and pregnant women are less able to regulate their body temperature, making them more susceptible to the adverse effects of extreme heat. Athletes as well as outdoor and manual laborers are more likely to experience heat injury due to the amount of time they spend outdoors exposed to high temperatures, and the level of exertion expected of them.1

The effects of extreme heat on human health are more apparent now due to advances in modern technology. Evidence suggests that although there is an increase in climate-related hazards including extreme heat, there is a decline in global vulnerability. Advances in technology and the availability of information mean that mankind is better prepared for environmental disasters than ever before. With respect to extreme heat, the ability to go or remain indoors with air conditioning, education on proper hydration, the recognition of signs of heat injury, and modern medical treatment of heat injury help reduce the effects of extreme heat on human health. While these mitigation actions may be readily available in developed countries, less developed countries may have greater challenges related to infrastructure, water availability, and medical care.2,3,4

Heat waves are projected to become longer and hotter in the future, increasing the need for adaptation and mitigation measures. Effects of extreme heat should be considered when planning future urban design and development. Urban environments can create heat islands due to the amount of land covered by concrete and asphalt. This heat island effect causes cities to be an average of 1-7°F warmer during the daytime. City development plans that increase the amount of tree canopies and greens space can help mitigate heat island effects. Localities should have heat action plans that include essential services such as fresh water, air conditioning, electricity, and healthcare. Healthcare systems should be designed to handle a potential increase in heat injury casualties. Emerging research is also beginning to link the increase in extreme heat events with observed declines in mental health. Rising temperatures appear to coincide with societal declines in cardiovascular health, homelessness, and drug abuse as well. Considering that an estimated 60% of the world’s population is expected to be living in cities by 2030, urban planning will become more important.4,5,6

Wildfire
Large-scale wildfires are becoming more frequent. The U.S. has experienced a yearly average of 70,072 wildfires burning an average of 7 million acres since the year 2000. That is more than double the yearly average of 3.3 million acres burned from an average of 78,600 wildfires per year in the 1990’s. The U.S. is not alone. In 2020, Australia and Russia saw one of the worst wildfire seasons ever recorded in those countries. European and African nations are grappling with the problem as well. Extreme heat events and drought reduce moisture and increase the amount of dry vegetation, the fuel that drives these larger wildfires.7,8,9

Wildfire smoke contains a mix of solid and liquid particles suspended in the air known as particle pollution. These particles are no larger than one third the diameter of a hair follicle. The miniscule size of these particles allows them to enter and lodge deep in the lungs. Children, the elderly, and those with chronic conditions such as COPD, asthma, bronchitis, heart disease, and diabetes are more likely to have significant adverse effects from breathing wildfire smoke. Studies after California wildfire indicate that children exposed to wildfire smoke exhibited more coughing, wheezing, bronchitis, colds, and were more likely to receive medical treatment for respiratory causes. Particle pollution can trigger asthma attacks, heart attacks and strokes which can be deadly. The tiny particles in wildfire smoke can stay suspended in the air and travel long distances depending on wind conditions. Plumes of smoke from wildfires can rise to 14 miles, well into the stratosphere and spread across the globe. The 2020 Siberia Wildfires spread across the Pacific Ocean and caused air quality issues in Alaska and Washington State.10

As wildfires increase in frequency and size, so will the impacts to human health. Cities in British Columbia experienced particulate levels twenty times higher than would be expected on an average day during recent Canadian wildfires. Studies on the long-term impacts of exposure to wildfire particle pollution are ongoing, but the work suggests that some people may never fully recover after experiencing just one severe wildfire season. This is especially true with children because their lungs are still developing. Researchers are also finding that smoke particles become more toxic the farther they move away from the fire. The particles oxidize over time and convert into highly reactive compounds that have a greater capacity to damage cells and tissue. One study in Greece indicated that toxicity of smoke compounds can double in just a few hours after the smoke was emitted. Wildfire emission mixing with existing air pollution in populated cities further exacerbates the problem.8

Insect-Borne Diseases
Mosquitoes, ticks, fleas, flies, and other insects can spread diseases that range from mild to severe. Some are untreatable with vaccines or medication. Mosquitoes spread malaria, dengue, West Nile virus, yellow fever, Zika, chikungunya, and lymphatic filariasis. They cause more deaths than any other animal worldwide. In 2021, 619,000 people died from malaria and over 247 million others became ill in 84 countries, with nearly 3.2 billion worldwide still at risk. However, West Nile is the most common disease spread by mosquitoes in the continental United States (CONUS), with an average of 2,400 cases each year. Dengue outbreaks occur worldwide (OCONUS), including elsewhere in the Americas, Africa, the Middle East, Asia, and the Pacific Islands. In 2019, the U.S. experienced the highest number of travel-associated dengue cases since 2010. Dengue is still common in some territories of the U.S., including Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Chikungunya occurs in tropical and subtropical areas. It can cause long-term joint issues and poses a hazard to infants and older adults. In 2023, there was an Chikungunya outbreak in Paraguay of over 115,000 cases. Additionally, lymphatic filariasis is transmitted via repeated mosquito bites over several months. The World Health Organization estimates that 51 million people in 44 countries are infected with the disease.11,12

Tickborne diseases range in severity and symptoms. Lyme disease is transmitted to humans through blacklegged ticks (deer ticks). Anaplasmosis and ehrlichiosis are closely related bacterial diseases that are also transmitted by infected ticks. Babesiosis is a parasite that infects red blood cells and causes flu-like symptoms. It can be fatal in the elderly and the immunocompromised. Rocky Mountain spotted fever is a bacterial disease that can be transmitted via the American dog tick, the Rocky Mountain wood tick, and the brown dog tick. Powassan virus is transmitted to humans via groundhog ticks, squirrel ticks, and deer ticks, which are found primarily in the Northeast and upper Midwest of the U.S. It can also be transmitted via blood transfusions. Other tickborne diseases in the U.S. include southern tick-associated rash illness, tickborne relapsing fever, tularemia, and Powassan virus. However, tick-borne diseases are not only found in CONUS, but worldwide, including. Canada, Europe, Africa, and Asia.13,14

Some fleas carry pathogens, including those that cause the bubonic plague. The pathogens are commonly transmitted in CONUS by ground squirrel fleas and in OCONUS by infected rat fleas. Pathogens are sometimes transmitted by the handling of infected animals. Most CONUS cases occur in rural areas in the West, including Texas, California, and even Hawaii. Flea-borne (murine) typhus can be transmitted via cat fleas, rat fleas, and their feces (“flea dirt”). Cat scratch disease is often transmitted by the Ctenocephalides Felis flea, or, again, through flea feces. Flea-borne parasites, such as tapeworms, can also spread by the accidental ingestion of an infected specimen. Most fleas with public health and veterinary relevance spread via human travel and the movement of livestock, pets, and rodents.15,16

Houseflies are found worldwide. They can transmit over 100 pathogens including bacteria, viruses, fungi, and parasites. The evidence supporting the role of flies in transmitting diseases is mostly circumstantial. There is a correlation between a rise in diarrhea within a geographic area and an increase in the fly population. The pathogens carried by flies depend on the area. In hospitals or on farms, they often carry antimicrobial resistant bacteria and fungi. They may also transmit nosocomial infections, which are illnesses acquired by being hospitalized itself. Flies mechanically transmit pathogens, in which a host transmits an illness without being infected. House flies feed and reproduce in feces, carrion, and other decaying substances. They then carry microorganisms on the surface of their bodies from breeding sites to humans and animals.17,18

Insect-borne illnesses will continue to pose a hazard in various countries and regions throughout the world. The hazard is exacerbated by climate change, human travel, and wildlife migration. There is evidence that temperate regions, such as the United Kingdom, are now receiving invasive mosquito species and their associated illnesses. This short-distance spread has occurred in Western Europe and throughout the Mediterranean basin. Over the past three (3) decades, insect-borne diseases that were once controlled have emerged in new geographic locations, causing new and reemergent outbreaks.19,20

Drought
Dehydration is the primary risk associated with droughts. Dehydration occurs when the body uses or loses more water than it takes in, negatively affecting health. This is especially dangerous for young children and older adults. The most common cause in young children is diarrhea and vomiting. Older adults already have a lower volume of water in their bodies, increasing the risk from minor illnesses and certain medications. However, droughts pose other hazards. Some effects are short-term, but others are long-term. These effects can include unsafe drinking water; poor air quality, sanitation, hygiene, food, and nutrition; and diseases, including those carried by mosquitoes from stagnant water.21,22

Reduced precipitation and increased evaporation of surface water can result in less groundwater over time. Many areas within the U.S. use groundwater as their primary water source. Other drought-related factors affect air quality, including airborne toxins originating from cyanobacteria in fresh water, which can become airborne and cause lung irritation. Drought can also limit the agricultural growing seasons and lead to insect and disease infestation in crops. Low crop yields cause food shortages and increase food prices. This can contribute to malnutrition, particularly in populations dependent on subsistence farming. Drought can also affect livestock, which can become dehydrated, malnourished, and diseased, further reducing food availability.22

The frequency and intensity of droughts are expected to increase as evaporation rates and average temperatures continue to rise. Trends in precipitation rates across the globe vary, with some regions projected to see greater rates of precipitation as other regions see a reduction in overall precipitation. Areas with increased precipitation are at risk of flooding, while areas with less precipitation have an increased risk of drought. However, higher temperatures may affect the frequency and magnitude of drought elsewhere due to increased evapotranspiration, which is the combination of evaporation from the ground surface and transpiration by vegetation.23,24

August 2023 was the warmest August in the 1910-2023 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s records for Africa, North and South America, and Asia. It was also notably dry over parts of the Americas, Africa, Australia, India, the western Mediterranean, and Russia. Climate change is expected to increase the risk of drought conditions worldwide. These consequences are more pronounced for countries in the developing world. Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia will likely face the greatest risk of more frequent and more intense droughts in the future. As global temperatures rise, those areas will also experience not only dehydration, but the secondary effects of drought, including disease and negative impacts on plants and animals, which can result in food shortages.23,25,26

Outlook
Weather and climate are closely intertwined with human health. As climate patterns change across the globe, so too will extreme heat, wildfires, insect-borne disease, and drought impacts on humans. As these hazards are all being driven by increases in global temperatures, it is important to keep in mind that average temperatures have been increasing in recent years and are projected to continue to do so. While the severity of the increase cannot be precisely quantified, the observed trends and their impact on health will become continue to become more apparent and impactful. The potential climate-related causes of illnesses and danger to individual human health are imperative to track to enable appropriate mitigation efforts. RMC’s Intelligence & Analysis Division will continue to monitor relevant developments and research in order to inform potential impacts to RMC’s government and commercial clients.

Sources

1. National Institute of Health. (n.d.) Temperature-related Death and Illness. NIH. Retrieved from https://www.niehs.nih.gov/research/programs/climatechange/health_impacts/heat/index.cfm.

2. Formetta, G and Feyen, L. (2019, June) Empirical evidence of declining global vulnerability to climate-related hazards. Global Environmental Change Volume 57. Retrieved from https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378019300378.

3. Hanna, E and Tait, P. (2015, July 15). Limitations to Thermoregulation and Acclimatization Challenge Human Adaptation to Global Warming. National Library of Medicine. Retrieved from https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4515708/.

4. Khatana, S. (2023, May 22). Extreme Heat and Health: Understanding the Scope of the Problem. University of Pennsylvania Leonard Davis Institute of Health Economics. Retrieved from https://ldi.upenn.edu/our-work/research-updates/extreme-heat-and-health-understanding-the-scope-of-the-problem/.

5. 2023 Global Shifts Colloquium Report. (2023 March 21-22). Living with Extreme Heat: Our Shared Future. University of Pennsylvania Perry World House. Retrieved from https://global.upenn.edu/sites/default/files/perry-world-house/pwh-global-shifts-colloquium-report-2023.pdf.

6. Gregory, J., Azarijafari, H. n.d.). Urban Heat Islands. MIT Climate Portal. Retrieved from https://climate.mit.edu/explainers/urban-heat-islands.

7. Hirscchlag, A. (2023, June 7). The long-distance harm to health caused by wildfires. BBC. Retrieved from https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200821-how-wildfire-pollution-may-be-harming-your-health.

8. Moore, A. (2022, August 29). Climate Change is Making Wildfires Worse — Here’s How. North Carolina State University College of Natural Resources. Retrieved from https://cnr.ncsu.edu/news/2022/08/climate-change-wildfires-explained/.

9. Congressional Research Service. (2023, June 1). Wildfire Statistics. Retrieved from https://sgp.fas.org/crs/misc/IF10244.pdf.

10. Editorial Staff, American Lung Association. (2016, January 1). How Wildfires Affect Our Health. American Lung Association. Retrieved from https://www.lung.org/blog/how-wildfires-affect-health.

11. U.S. Dept. of Health and Human Services. (2022, May 11). Avoid bug bites. Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Retrieved from https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/page/avoid-bug-bites.

12. U.S. Dept. of Health and Human Services. (2023, August 17). Fighting the world’s deadliest animal. Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Retrieved from https://www.cdc.gov/globalhealth/stories/2019/world-deadliest-animal.html.

13. Yale Medicine. (n.d.). Tick-borne illnesses. Yale Medicine. Retrieved from https://www.yalemedicine.org/conditions/tick-borne-illnesses.

14. John Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. (n.d.). Geography, ticks, and you. John Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. Retrieved from https://www.hopkinslymetracker.org/ geography-ticks-and-you/.

15. U.S. Dept. of Health and Human Services. (2020, August 13). Fleaborne diseases of the United States. Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Retrieved from https://www.cdc.gov/fleas/ diseases.html.

16. European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. (2021, November 9). Fleas (Siphonaptera) – factsheet for health professionals. European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. Retrieved from https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/all-topics-z/disease-vectors/facts/fleas-siphonaptera-factsheet-health-professionals.

17. Honarvar, B., Khamesipour, F., Kwenti, T.E., & Lankarani, K.B. (2018, August 22). A systematic review of human pathogens carried by the housefly (Musca domestica L.). BMC Public Health. Retrieved from https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6104014/.

18. WebMD Editorial Contributors. (2021, November 27). What is a nosocomial infection? WebMD. Retrieved from https://www.webmd.com/a-to-z-guides/what-is-a-nosocomial-infection.

19. Hernandez-Triana, L. (2023, July 6). Exploring the rise of vector-borne diseases. APHA Science Blog. Retrieved from https://aphascience.blog.gov.uk/2023/07/06/vector-borne-diseases-2/.

20. Mack, A. (2016). Global health impacts of vector-borne diseases. National Academies of Science-Engineering-Medicine. Retrieved from https://nap.nationalacademies.org/catalog/21792/global-health-impacts-of-vector-borne-diseases-workshop-summary.

21. Mayo Clinic. (2021, October 14). Dehydration. Mayo Clinic. Retrieved from https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/dehydration/symptoms-causes/syc-20354086.

22. U.S. Dept. of Health and Human Services. (2020, January 16). Health implications of drought. Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Retrieved from https://www.cdc.gov/nceh/drought/ implications.htm.

23. NOAA National Integrated Drought Information System. (n.d.). Historical drought. NOAA National Integrated Drought Information System. Retrieved from https://www.drought.gov/what-is-drought/ historical-drought.

24. USACE Hydrologic Engineering Center. (n.d.). Evapotranspiration. HEC-HMS Users Manual. Retrieved from https://www.hec.usace.army.mil/confluence/hmsdocs/hmsum/4.8/meteorology-description/evapotranspiration.

25. NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information. (2023, August). August 2023 global drought narrative. Global Drought Information System. Retrieved from https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/ access/monitoring/monthly-report/global-drought/202308.

26. Elkouk, A., Lhoussaine, B., Pokhrel, Y, & Satoh, Y. (2022, September 1). Implications of changes in climate and human development on 21st-century global drought risk. Journal of Environmental Management. Retrieved from https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/ S0301479722009513?via%3Dihub.

Recent Potential Chinese Collection Activity Targeting DoD Installations

Andrew Kovacs on September 21, 2023

Introduction
An investigative journalism piece published 04 September in the Wall Street Journal brought newfound attention to a phenomenon that has been experienced by Department of Defense (DoD) installations for a number of years: increasing suspicious activity involving Chinese nationals. These Chinese nationals (sometimes referred to as “gate crashers”) have repeatedly attempted to gain access to DoD installations. In many of these cases, Chinese nationals claim to be tourists, claim to be lost, or claim to be attempting to access businesses located onboard the installation (such as gas stations or restaurants). In a few cases, Chinese nationals have disregarded gate guards’ commands and proceeded onto installations without permission or have otherwise trespassed and been discovered on installation property. A common concern across all of these cases is the potential for espionage collection.1

This paper will provide a brief overview of China’s approach to espionage and national security laws that allow the Chinese government to compel its citizens to assist in espionage. The paper will then examine the recent phenomenon of potential Chinese collection activity targeting DoD installations through the lens of three recent case studies.

Background
China engages in a wide-ranging “whole of society” approach to espionage that leverages private businesses and citizens in addition to traditional espionage efforts and cyberattacks. To this end, China’s government has implemented national security laws that can compel Chinese nationals to act as non-traditional collectors. In particular, Article 7 of the 2017 National Intelligence Law specifies that “all organizations and citizens shall, according to the law, provide support and assistance to and cooperate with the State intelligence work, and keep secret the State intelligence work that they know.” An interpretation by a Swedish business law firm concluded that the 2017 National Intelligence Law “applies to all Chinese citizens, and because [the 2017 National Intelligence Law] does not appear to have an explicit geographical limitation, it could be construed to apply to all Chinese citizens even when residing outside of China.”2

While it is unclear whether individual Chinese citizens are being compelled to conduct espionage against the DoD, China has long utilized non-traditional collectors (loosely defined as individuals who are not part of a formal intelligence agency, yet still act in support of a foreign government) in U.S. academia and business settings in order to steal sensitive research and trade secrets. Non-traditional collectors may include businesspeople, students, professors, and conference attendees. The sheer number of these individuals provides the Chinese government with a wide pool of potential sources of information who may also draw limited suspicion due to legitimate business/academic reasons to access sensitive information.

In February 2022, Federal Bureau of Investigation Director Christopher Wray stated that the Bureau was opening a China-related counterintelligence investigation every 12 hours on average. Many of these cases involved espionage activities targeting U.S. businesses and academia. Based on this pattern, it is likely that China also utilizes non-traditional collectors in espionage activities targeting the DoD to some degree.3

Case Studies
The following case studies highlight specific events (or clusters of events) related to potential Chinese collection activity targeting DoD installations. These case studies were primarily selected due to the availability of open source media reporting surrounding each event (or cluster of events). A number of additional incidents could have resulted in significant espionage concerns; however, it is likely that details surrounding such incidents would be sensitive and/or classified, with reporting restricted to official government channels.

The potential collection activity detailed in the following case studies includes suspicious photography, possible probing of security, and other concerns that may appear relatively minor in nature. However, the aggregation of numerous disparate pieces of information could provide an adversary such as China with valuable intelligence regarding DoD installations, personnel, and operations (to include information which could be utilized in follow-on espionage efforts).

2019 Virginia Military Base Incident
According to open source media reporting, in September 2019, two (2) Chinese embassy officials and their wives drove onto an unspecified military base in the Norfolk, VA area that hosts special operations forces. In the incident, the Chinese individuals arrived at the installation’s gate, but were denied access by a gate guard, who instructed them to turn around and exit the installation (a standard procedure). Instead of following these instructions, the vehicle proceeded further onto the installation, until they were reportedly stopped by fire trucks. Once detained, the individuals claimed to not have understood the English instructions and stated that they had simply gotten lost.4,5

Open source media reporting indicated that the embassy officials were secretly expelled from the U.S. just a few months later, with at least one of the officials believed to be an intelligence officer operating under diplomatic cover. Anonymous U.S. military officials quoted in media reporting believed that the incident was a test of security and theorized that a more senior intelligence officer could have been sent on a subsequent mission onto the base if security was perceived to be inadequate.4,5

While the installation was not specified in media reporting, the Norfolk, VA area is home to a dense concentration of DoD assets and personnel, particularly the U.S. Navy. Media reports alluding to the presence of special operations forces could indicate a nexus to Naval Special Warfare units (such as the Navy SEALs), which are publicly known to be located at installations in the Norfolk, VA area. The U.S. Navy’s capabilities are likely a priority collection target for Chinese intelligence actors due to rising tensions involving Taiwan and the South China Sea, as well as the role U.S. naval forces would play in a regional conflict.6

2019-2020 Naval Air Station Key West Incidents
Naval Air Station (NAS) Key West (located in Key West, FL) was the subject of a potential espionage incident in December 2019 perpetrated by Liao Lyuyou, a 27-year-old Chinese native. During the incident, Liao took photos of government installations and sensitive military equipment after illegally accessing the base. Bystanders/witnesses warned Liao that the area he had entered was restricted, but he continued to trespass and take photos. After being confronted by military personnel, Liao claimed he only wanted to take pictures of the sunrise. He then gave the responding personnel permission to search his camera, where photos of several government buildings were found, including the installation’s Truman Annex. After being arrested on 26 December 2019, Liao pleaded guilty to illegally entering a restricted area. He was sentenced to 12 months in prison.7,8

Just a week later, on 04 January 2020, two (2) men were arrested for a similar incident at NAS Key West. 25-year-old Jielun Zhang and 24-year-old Yuhao Wang (both of whom are Chinese nationals) faced charges of illegally entering a restricted area (the same charge faced by Liao in the preceding incident). Zhang was ultimately sentenced to 12 months in prison, while Yuhao was sentenced to nine (9) months in prison. According to the U.S. Attorney’s office, the men approached the gate at NAS Key West’s Sigsbee Annex but had no military identification. After being turned around and instructed to leave the facility, instead the men stayed onboard the installation for an additional 30 minutes. After security forces obtained consent to see the cameras and cell phones that the two (2) men possessed, they found images of U.S. military structures on Fleming Key, along with images of the Sigsbee Annex property.7,8

NAS Key West is potentially an alluring target for espionage efforts due to various notable tenants, to include Joint Interagency Task Force-South (headquartered at the Truman Annex photographed by Liao), as well as various missions such as supporting training for aviation and special operations units. In recent years, China has expanded its military/intelligence footprint in the Caribbean, particularly in Cuba, which is located less than 100 miles from Key West, FL. As a result, China would likely seek to collect information on DoD assets throughout the region that would be in position to counter any Chinese military/intelligence activities, to include NAS Key West.9,10

Recent Alaska Incidents
Recent potential Chinese collection activity targeting DoD installations in Alaska (a strategic location due to increasing competition in the Arctic) highlights China’s possible interest in the area’s assets. Chinese citizens claiming to be tourists have reportedly made multiple recent attempts to gain access to military facilities in Alaska. For example, open source media reports highlight incidents at the Army’s Fort Wainwright in Fairbanks, Alaska, including a case where a vehicle with Chinese citizens attempted to pass guards at a security checkpoint. Once the vehicle was stopped and searched, a drone was found inside, and the Chinese nationals claimed they were lost tourists. Reports also note that there have been incidents where Chinese nationals arrived stating they had a reservation at an on-base hotel, including recently at Fort Wainwright.1,11

According to the National Strategy for the Arctic Region, China looks to expand its influence in the Arctic through economic, diplomatic, scientific, and military activities. Alaska and the greater Arctic region host many DoD facilities and assets that may be the target of Chinese “gate crashers.” In addition to Fort Wainwright, Alaska is home to two (2) other large military bases, Joint Base Elmendorf-Richard in Anchorage and Eielson Air Force Base near Fairbanks, and several smaller installations. Additional DoD assets in Alaska include the Air Force’s F-22s and F-35s, radars and missiles that could defend against nuclear attack at the Army’s Fort Greely, and Coast Guard Air Station Kodiak.11,12,13

The DoD has increasingly invested resources in Alaska and transferred assets to the region over the past few years, highlighting the U.S.’ objective of enhancing the capabilities required to defend American interests in the Arctic. For instance, in June 2022, the Army activated the 11th Airborne Division at Fort Wainwright and Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson to execute expeditionary operations within the Indo-Pacific theater, conduct Multi-Domain Operations in the Arctic, and defend critical infrastructure in support of homeland defense. Furthermore, the U.S. has invested hundreds of millions of dollars to expand the port at Nome to harbor large vessels in Western Alaska, potentially servicing Coast Guard and Navy vessels in the Arctic Circle. Lastly, the DoD engages in military exercises in Alaska, including Northern Edge. This large-scale, biannual military exercise, which took place recently in May 2023, involved thousands of U.S. servicemembers, five (5) ships, more than 150 aircraft, and joint, multinational, and multi-domain operations with United Kingdom and Australian servicemembers. These assets and operations are likely highly appealing targets for adversaries such as China.11,12,13,14,15

Outlook
Some of the incidents detailed in this paper are likely low-level intelligence collection by individuals who may be acting in support of the Chinese government (to include potentially being compelled to support the Chinese government by law). It is also possible that some recent incidents involving Chinese nationals involve legitimate misunderstandings. Some operatives, civilian or otherwise, may be caught, but it can be difficult to prove that they are engaged in espionage. Even those who are confronted are able to gather details on an installation’s security posture by engaging in probing activities. A few may even be able to retrieve intelligence that becomes actionable when combined with information gathered through other intelligence collection avenues. It is incumbent upon DoD installations to maintain a vigilant security posture and take even seemingly innocuous encounters seriously, as China’s “whole of society” espionage campaign against the U.S. and the DoD will almost certainly continue to increase in the coming years.

Sources

1. Lubold, G. (2023, September 4). Chinese Gate-Crashers at U.S. Bases Spark Espionage Concerns. Wall Street Journal. Retrieved from https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/chinese-gate-crashers-at-u-s-bases-spark-espionage-concerns-cdef8187.

2. Mannheimer Swartling. (2019, January). Applicability of Chinese National Intelligence Law to Chinese and non-Chinese Entities. Retrieved from https://www.mannheimerswartling.se/app/uploads/2021/04/msa_nyhetsbrev_national-intelligence-law_jan-19.pdf.

3. Williams, P. (2022, February 2). Full interview: FBI Director Wray on efforts to halt China’s spying. NBC News. Retrieved from https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/fbi-director-wray-says-scale-chinese-spying-us-blew-away-rcna14369.

4. Pearman, M. (2019, December 16). 2 Chinese officials suspected of spying on local military base. WAVY. Retrieved from https://www.wavy.com/news/military/source-two-chinese-officials-suspected-of-spying-on-local-military-base/.

5. Cole, D. (2019, December 16). New York Times: US ‘secretly expelled’ Chinese officials who entered ‘sensitive’ military base. CNN. Retrieved from https://www.cnn.com/2019/12/15/politics/chinese-officials-expelled-embassy-military-base/index.html.

6. United States Naval Special Warfare Command. (n.d.). NSW Guidebook. Retrieved from https://www.nsw.navy.mil/Portals/27/Documents/NSW%20Guidebook%202023.pdf?ver=MdvdftJXb6oogzLRjn5D1w%3d%3d.

7. Flores, R., & Weisfeldt, S. (2020, June 5). 3 Chinese nationals sentenced to prison for taking photos at Florida naval base. CNN. Retrieved from https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/05/us/chinese-nationals-sentenced-prison/index.html.

8. Lolo, S. (2020, June 4). 3 Chinese nationals sentenced to prison for illegal photography at Key West naval base. 12 News. Retrieved from https://cbs12.com/news/local/3-chinese-nationals-sentenced-to-prison-for-illegal-photography-at-key-west-naval-base.

9. Commander, Navy Region Southeast. (n.d.). NAS Key West. Retrieved from https://cnrse.cnic.navy.mil/Installations/NAS-Key-West/.

10. Xue, X. (2023, June 29). Analysts: China’s plans for Cuba may go beyond spy base. VOA. Retrieved from https://www.voanews.com/a/analysts-china-s-plans-for-cuba-may-go-beyond-spy-base/7159210.html.

11. Vanden Brook, T. (2023, May 31). Suspected Chinese spies, disguised as tourists, tried to infiltrate Alaskan military bases. USA Today. Retrieved from https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2023/05/31/suspected-chinese-spies-posing-as-tourists-discovered-in-alaska/70260712007/.

12. The White House. (2022, October). National Strategy for the Arctic Region. The White House. Retrieved from https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/National-Strategy-for-the-Arctic-Region.pdf.

13. Baker, M. (2022, March 27). With Eyes on Russia, the U.S. Military Prepares for an Arctic Future. The New York Times. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/27/us/army-alaska-arctic-russia.html.

14. Ellis, T. (2023, June 8). Fort Wainwright apprehended ‘Chinese spies,’ Sullivan says. Alaska Public Media. Retrieved from https://alaskapublic.org/2023/06/08/fort-wainwright-apprehended-chinese-spies-sullivan-says/.

15. Department of Defense. (n.d.). 11th Airborne Division. Department of Defense. Retrieved from https://11thairbornedivision.army.mil/.

Geopolitical Impacts of Climate Change: An Overview

Andrew Kovacs on August 25, 2023

Introduction
The geopolitical implications of climate change are wide-ranging, creating not only local and regional instability, but also impacts seen on the international stage, creating security concerns. Climate-driven conflicts can occur all around the globe, however they tend to concentrate in areas where economic and political security are low. Increasingly frequent and severe floods, droughts, and other extreme weather events create resource scarcity, causing thousands of migrants to leave their homes and congregate in resource-rich areas. Lack of resources is a major driver of human migration and displacement, creating large geopolitical challenges for countries struggling with resource scarcity. This paper will examine four geographical regions with specific examples of the geopolitical implications of climate change. By examining these case studies, an emphasis on the global, interconnected nature of politics and climate is clearly formed.

Case Studies
The following regional case studies were selected to illustrate the geographic diversity and global impacts of climate change on geopolitics. The origin of climate-related issues, geopolitical repercussions, and local success and failures will all be discussed. However, the below regions should not be considered an all-inclusive list, as the impacts of climate change on geopolitics span the globe.

Middle East
Within the Middle East, climate conditions are regularly hot and arid. The region is home to 12 of the world’s 17 most water stressed countries. Agriculture depends on irrigation from major rivers and water sources. The changing climate has begun to elongate droughts and extreme weather events, forcing people of lower socioeconomic status to migrate to urban areas or other regions of the world, like Europe, to ensure their economic stability. The Middle East is warming at twice the global average. Limited resources are also a large driving factor in climate-related conflict and creates conditions conducive to the recruitment citizens into terrorist organizations. Lack of fresh water, desertification, extreme oil prices, and unreliable food production systems that are within or around countries in conflict or post-conflict transitions increases instability and violence.1,2,3

The Middle East and greater Mediterranean region have known conflict since ancient times, driven largely by the geography where three continents come together with the major powers of Europe, Asia and Africa. Competition for resources and power through two World Wars, the Cold War, and the Global War on Terror has left the region scarred and divided in terms of politics, social issues, and economic development. The already hot and dry climate and general lack of economic resources leaves the region more vulnerable to the ramifications of climate change compared to other parts of the world. Political instability makes efficient use of limited resources, especially water, difficult. This may be one reason that organized and modern farming practices utilized in developed nations is virtually non-existent in the region. The water stress of the region makes these modern farming practices more important. Climate change may decrease agricultural productivity, increasing the region’s reliance on food imports.4

Instability is used as a driving factor in resource management and prolonged resource scarcity at the hands of corrupt or insurgent governments, paving the way for terrorist organizations to monopolize scarce resources and further engage in violence. The violence, instability, and lack of basic resources are all factors driving emigration from the region by the millions in the last decade. Approximately 46% of the 30.6 million migrants leaving the Middle East and North Africa in 2019 stayed within the region with Saudi Arabia (3.4 million), Jordan (3.3 million) and Lebanon (1.7 million) taking in the most migrants. In the same year, the United States accepted approximately 1.3 million migrants from the Middle East and North Africa. Turkey accepted the largest number of migrants at approximately 4 million, followed by France at 3.3 million, and Germany at 1.3 million each. European nations are becoming weary of migration as the continent grapples with the effects of large-scale African migration and refugees from the war in Ukraine.5,6

Energy resources are also a significant source of geopolitical conflict. Advances in technology are making renewable energy sources more viable, however the emerging technologies cannot support global energy and transportation needs. Oil, natural gas, and coal still account for 86% of global energy consumption. The middle east accounts for nearly half of easily accessible oil worldwide and one-third of natural gas. Energy production drives economic development in the region which will be adversely affected by the transition to renewable energy long term. In the short term, the war in Ukraine leaves the EU looking for alternative energy sources outside of Russia. China, now the world’s largest net importer of oil, is investing in oil and gas exploration projects throughout the Middle East. The need to move these resources from the Middle East to the rest of the world creates tension along historic trade routes. The Strait of Hormuz, Strait of Malacca, Suez Canal, and other choke points on shipping lanes see frequent naval exercises and geopolitical posturing amongst world powers. China’s Belt and Road Initiative along these trade routes strategically places Chinese government influence in resource-rich regions. Countries participating in the initiative often find themselves indebted to China for the infrastructure projects China provides.7,8

Africa
Africa experiences the effects of climate change differently depending on the region. Across the continent, in 2020, one in five people faced hunger. Droughts in sub-Saharan Africa and the Horn of Africa, coupled with extreme flooding in West and Central Africa, creates unstable and uninhabitable conditions for millions of people. Recently, drastically changing weather patterns have caused flooding in parts of the Horn of Africa, forcing local populations to relocate. West Africa has been identified as a climate change hotspot, as the region’s crop yields diminish and create large impacts on food security. As resources are consistently scarce across many of the 52 countries that make up the continent of Africa, displaced persons are traveling north and crossing the Mediterranean Sea in hopes of reaching Europe. Limited resources create a perfect storm for armed conflict and terrorist organizations. Violence in many of these areas are due to both resource competition and a lack of governmental oversight and regulation, mostly related to corruption.9,10,11

Governmental forces or non-state armed groups have been implicated in human rights abuses in over 15 armed conflicts across Africa. Although the Central African Republic, Guinea and the International Criminal Court have opened trials in some cases, atrocities often go unpunished. Seeking justice for such crimes is difficult given the regularity with which local leaders manipulate elections and legal processes. Additionally, harassment and violence against journalists, activists and political opponents suppresses free speech and solidifies tyranny. Further complicating these issues is the presence and spread of foreign terrorist fighters, mercenaries (including Russia’s Wagner Group), and the influence of opposing international governments including the U.S., European countries, Russia, and China. Armed conflict has created a myriad of internally displaced people, refugees, and migrants to flee the violence, repression, poverty, and environmental factors.12

The level of migration into Europe has the European Union negotiating new policies on how to process asylum seekers. Italy and Greece are on the front lines of Mediterranean migration north, and while some EU nations are offering support, others are against receiving asylum seekers. This is especially true of Poland and Hungary who are currently hosting significant numbers of refugees from the war in Ukraine. As part of the current EU agreement (which has not had a final vote) countries would have the option of receiving migrants after a vetting process or paying 20,000 Euros for each migrant they do not accept.13

Moreover, conflicts such as the war in Ukraine have a grave impact on the receipt of critical resources, such as wheat, to East Africa. Twenty-five African countries import more than 1/3 of their wheat from Russia and Ukraine, while Benin in West Africa receives 100% of their wheat from Russia, and Somalia in East Africa receives 70% of their wheat from Ukraine and 30% from Russia. Russia recently reimposed their blockade of Ukrainian grain exports. Due to the instability the war has caused in supply chain, millions of people in Africa face extreme hunger and famine. The number of food insecure people worldwide has doubled in the past two years from 135 million to 276 million with more than half a million people living in famine conditions. This is an increase of 500% compared to 2016 levels. The G7 have pledged assistance to address food insecurity in Africa and there is some discussion of U.S. and allied navies potentially escorting Ukrainian grain shipments across the Black Sea.14,15

Although Africa has significant energy reserves, a lack of refining capacity means that resources must be exported overseas for refining and imported back into Africa. Worldwide economic issues and inflation exacerbate the issue causing a spike in African energy prices. African healthcare systems were stretch to the limit during the global pandemic are struggling to recover and resupply. Additionally, the World Bank recently issued warnings that developing countries owe record amounts of debt to wealthier nations, banks, bondholders, and China in particular. The G7 is considering backing off their previous commitments not to finance natural gas projects overseas. This may be the result of Europe’s changing views on importing Russian natural gas as Europe looks for other sources of energy.14

Africa has large reserves of natural resources, especially rare earth minerals. Africa could someday surpass China for rare earth mineral production, making it strategically important to global powers and fueling geopolitical tension in the region. China and Russia have been expanding their influence throughout Africa in recent years, often offering infrastructure projects and military support making countries indebted in virtual perpetuity. As the U.S. and European nations seek to ease the tension of migration, offer help to African nations, and potentially become involved in African energy projects, the great power competition in Africa is likely to become even more heightened.16,17

Asia
The implications of climate change in Asia are also highly concerning. Heavy monsoon rains and intense flooding, elongated droughts, and increased temperatures make regions in Asia, such as the South, one of the world’s most vulnerable regions. Extreme weather events occur more frequently there, leaving minimal recovery time for communities. This strains agricultural industries and the freshwater supplies across the continent, forcing millions to migrate, often from rural to urban areas. Mass migration affects infrastructure and resource availability in the cities to which people relocates, willingly or otherwise. The nature of their migration is called “climate mobility.”18,19

Climate mobility describes three (3) forms of population movement, including displacement, where people are forced to leave; migration, wherein they move voluntarily; and, finally, planned relocation, which is enforced by the state. These forms can overlap and may happen simultaneously, making it difficult to monitor trends. There were 38 million instances of displacement in 2021 worldwide, with 14.3 million (37.6%) from the East Asia and Pacific region, which includes those displaced more than once. More than half of these displacements (23.7 million) worldwide and 95% in the East Asia and Pacific region were due to weather. The Southeast Asian countries with the most displacements due to weather in 2021 were the Philippines (5,681,000), Indonesia (749,000), Vietnam (780,000), and Myanmar (158,000). Half were from rural areas, including indigenous communities, and half had already been displaced by weather in the past.20

In South Asia, most weather-related migration is also from rural to urban areas. Weather events like Cyclone Amphan in May 2020 often force populations to leave. In May 2009, Cyclone Aila forced out 2.3 million citizens in India, along with almost a million in Bangladesh. Pakistan’s July 2010 floods damaged or destroyed 1.1 million homes and displaced about 11 million people. Many resettled in urban areas. In 2012, floods displaced 1.5 million in the Indian state of Assam. In dry regions, water shortages have caused farmers, fishermen, and others dependent upon the water supply to migrate to cities. This mass displacement is compounded by the large number agricultural workers and those from densely populated coastal areas.21

Weather-related disasters can be exacerbated by inadequate facilities and infrastructure, which pose risks to human health, particularly in rural areas with limited response capacity. Warm conditions and heavy rainfall are precursors to a myriad of vector-borne diseases. Certain insects such as mosquitos that carry diseases like malaria, dengue fever, and zika become increasingly prevalent, creating a large health hazard for those living in such conditions. An increase in disease causes an increased strain on health and hospital resources, particularly in areas where resources are scarce.18

Central and South America
Climate-related disasters such as extreme weather events, irregular precipitation patterns, deforestation, and high temperatures across Central and South America contribute to high food insecurity and uninhabitable living conditions. It is estimated that 17,000,000 people in Latin America will be forced to relocate within 30 years due to climate related changes in agriculture production and regional stability. As with their counterparts in Asia, these migrants will relocate from areas with less water and inadequate crop yield and from areas affected by rising sea levels and storm surges. This will have implications for climate-sensitive industry, for infrastructure, and for social support systems, particularly in urban areas where climate migrants are likely to settle.22,23

Since 2014, farmers have lost an estimated 70% of their crop during many harvests due to droughts. Recent studies have indicated that, although climate change has not necessarily reduced rainfall, it has increased heat and evaporation and made droughts worse. For example, 2022 was central Argentina’s driest year since 1960, with the region receiving roughly half its average rainfall during the last four (4) months of the year. Low rainfall combined with high temperatures led to widespread crop failure. Agricultural exports for 2023 are projected to further drop 28% compared to 2022. Uruguay also declared an agricultural emergency in October 2022 when 60% of the country’s territory experienced significant drought. Along with natural disasters exacerbated by climate change, crop failure can force residents to relocate to areas where resource stability is prevalent, and critical infrastructure is better able to withstand natural disasters. It also causes migrants from Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, and elsewhere to travel to the southern border of the United States to seek asylum. Mass migration affects infrastructure, law enforcement, and the resources of local and national governments along a group’s path. It also creates security concerns in and around areas of congregation and at a group’s final destination.24,25

Outlook
The harmful effects of climate change in the Middle East, Africa, Asia, and Central and South America include famine, mass migrations of persons to resource stable areas of the world, growing violent extremism, and conflicts over resources and the procurement of future resources. These issues create strain on governments and non-governmental organizations who are working to ensure the displaced populations have their basic needs met. Persons fleeing climate-related instability and conflict congregate around areas where such organizations are present, to include U.S. military installations. It is assumed that the installations will provide persons with basic necessities, such as food, water, shelter, and basic emergency health care. This can strain installation resources and affect the installation’s security posture. Moreover, host nations are only able to provide limited resources to such communities, creating strain on supply systems and host nation security forces. Both the short- and long-term effects of climate change will continue to disrupt and uproot civilians around the globe, resulting in notable impacts in the geopolitical realm. RMC’s Intelligence & Analysis Division continues to monitor relevant climate and geopolitical developments in order to analyze potential impacts to client assets, personnel, and operations.

Sources

1. Saleh, Salma. (2023, May 02). Topic: Climate Change in the Middle East. Statista. https://www.statista.com/topics/9533/climate-change-in-the-middle-east/#topicOverview.

2. Vohra, Anchal. (2021. August 24). The Middle East Is Becoming Literally Uninhabitable. Foreign
Policy. https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/08/24/the-middle-east-is-becoming-literally-uninhabitable/.

3. Alaaldin, Ranj. (2022, March 18). Climate Change May Devastate the Middle East. Here’s How Governments Should Tackle It. Brookings.

4. Scheffran, J. (2020). The Geopolitical Impact of Climate Change in the Mediterranean Region: Climate Change as a Trigger of Conflict and Migration. European Institute of the Mediterranean.

5. Henkin, S.D. (2022). Climate Change and Terrorism: A Call To Action. National Consortium for the
Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism. https://www.start.umd.edu/publication/climate-
change-and-terrorism-call-action.

6. Harjanto, L and Batalova, J. (2022, January 13). Middle Eastern and North African Immigrants in the United States. Migration Policy Institute.

7. Abouyoub, Y. (2023, February 14). The geopolitics of energy transition in MENA: Mitigating risks, exploring new opportunities. Middle East Institute. https://www.mei.edu/publications/geopolitics-energy-transition-mena-mitigating-risks-exploring-new-opportunities.

8. McBride, J and Chatzky, A. (2023, February 23). China’s Massive Belt and Road Initiative. Council on Foreign Relations. https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/chinas-massive-belt-and-road-initiative.

9. Huber, Chris, and Sevil Omer. (2023, April 24). Africa Hunger, Famine: Facts, Faqs, and How to Help.
World Vision. https://www.worldvision.org/hunger-news-stories/africa-hunger-famine-facts.

10. Millions Face Flooding Threat across West and Central Africa | UN News. (2022, October 28).
United Nations. https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/10/1129997.

11. Shepard, Dan. (2018, December). Global Warming: Severe Consequences for Africa | Africa Renewal. United Nations. https://www.un.org/africarenewal/magazine/december-2018-march-2019/global-warming-severe-consequences-africa.

12. Human Rights Watch. (2023, January 12). Africa: Conflicts, Violence Threaten Rights. https://www.hrw.org/news/2023/01/12/africa-conflicts-violence-threaten-rights/.

13. Sorgi, G and Barigazzi, J. (2023, June 10). What’s actually in the EU’s migration deal? Politico. https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-migration-deal-asylum-seekers-relocation/.

14. Which African Countries Are Most Dependent on Russian and Ukrainian Wheat? (2022, March
23). Teller Report. https://www.tellerreport.com/news/2022-03-23-which-african-countries-are
most-dependent-on-russian-and-ukrainian-wheat-.rkW8o3_df5.html.

15. Burrier, E. (2022, June 30). In Africa, Putin’s War on Ukraine Drives Food, Fuel and Finance Crises. United States Institute of Peace. https://www.usip.org/publications/2022/06/africa-putins-war-ukraine-drives-food-fuel-and-finance-crises.

16. Baskaran, G. (2022, December 29). Could Africa Replace China as the World’s Source of Rare Earth Elements? Brookings Institute. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/could-africa-replace-china-as-the-worlds-source-of-rare-earth-elements/.

17. Murphy, D. (2023, February). Strategic Competition for Overseas Basing in Sub-Saharan Africa. Brookings Institute. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/strategic-competition-for-overseas-basing-in-sub-saharan-africa/.

18. Siddiqui, Usaid. (2023, July 8). What makes South Asia so vulnerable to climate change? Al Jazeera. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/8/what-makes-south-asia-so-vulnerable-to-climate-change.

19. International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC). (2021, December 15). Over 57 million affected by climate disasters across Asia Pacific in 2021. IFRC. https://www.ifrc.org/press-release/over-57-million-affected-climate-disasters-across-asia-pacific-2021.

20. McCoy, D. & Soo-Chen, K. (2023, February 28). Climate displacement & migration in South East Asia. Reliefweb. https://reliefweb.int/report/viet-nam/climate-displacement-migration-south-east-asia.

21. Kugelman, M. (2020, September 30). Climate-induced displacement: South Asia’s clear and present danger. Wilson Center. https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/climate-induced-displacement-south-asias-clear-and-present-danger.

22. Phillips, Gregory. (2022, April 26). How climate change is changing Latin America. Duke Today https://today.duke.edu/2022/04/how-climate-change-changing-latin-america.

23. World Bank Group. (n.d.). Internal climate migration in Latin America. World Bank Group. https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/ 983921522304806221/pdf/124724-BRI-PUBLIC-NEWSERIES-Groundswell-note-PN3.pdf.

24. Bermeo, S. & Speck, M. (2022, September 21). How climate change catalyzes more migration in Central America. United States Institute of Peace.://www.usip.org/publications/2022/09/how-climate-change-catalyzes-more-migration-central-america.

25. Fraser-Baxter, S.E. (2023, February 16). New study investigates the role of climate change in South American drought. Imperial College London. https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/243193/new-study-investigates-role-climate-change/.

Human Impacts on Geological Events

Andrew Kovacs on August 7, 2023

Geological hazards are likely to see changes in their frequency and severity in the near future. Much of this can be attributed to human causes. In this paper, the Intelligence & Analysis Division will examine the ways in which various geological hazards are influenced by human activity, to include earthquakes, sinkholes, erosion, and landslides. 

Powered By EmbedPress

The Wagner Group’s Attempted Coup in Russia

Andrew Kovacs on July 27, 2023

In this paper, RMC’s Intelligence & Analysis Division will examine the paramilitary Wagner Group’s attempted coup in Russia. While the group ultimately retreated within the week, the ramifications of these actions were global. The history of the group, an overview of the recent coup attempt, and the impacts to the geopolitical and security landscape will be analyzed. 

Powered By EmbedPress

China-Cuba Relations: Recent Developments and Implications for U.S. National Security

Andrew Kovacs on June 5, 2023

In the June 2023 edition of the White Paper Series, the Intelligence & Analysis Division examines recent developments involving the China-Cuba relationship. In recent weeks, open source media reporting has raised the issue of an alleged Chinese signals intelligence collection facility on Cuba. Moreover, the two nations are reportedly discussing the creation of a joint military training facility. This paper briefly examines the history of the China-Cuba relationship, details regarding the aforementioned developments, and the implications for U.S. national security.

Powered By EmbedPress

The Use and Consequences of AI: An Overview

Andrew Kovacs on May 9, 2023

In the May 2023 edition of the White Paper Series, the Intelligence & Analysis Division examines recent developments related to the proliferation of Artificial Intelligence (AI) technologies. While AI technologies can be leveraged for productive purposes (such as business innovation and advanced defense systems), they can also be utilized by malicious actors (to include the spreading of misinformation/disinformation). This paper provides a brief overview of AI uses and consequences as they pertain to RMC’s current and prospective clients.

Powered By EmbedPress

Technical White Paper: Climate Risk Assessments

Andrew Kovacs on April 15, 2023

In the April 2023 edition of the White Paper Series, the Intelligence & Analysis Division details one of its newest capabilities: the Climate Risk Assessment (CRA). This paper details the organizational need for the CRA process, as well as the elements of said process as conducted by RMC. The CRA is designed to assess climate-related hazards in order to increase the resiliency of an organization’s assets and operations, as well as promote sustainable planning for the future.

Technical White Paper: Climate Risk Assessments

2300 Wilson Blvd
Suite 752
Arlington, VA 22201

PRIVACY POLICY
Linkedin