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Toxic Online Spaces and “Ideology-Free Terrorism”

Harry Mochel on January 15, 2023

In the January 2023 edition of the White Paper Series, the Intelligence & Analysis Division examines recent reports suggesting that an ideology-free form of terrorism may be emerging as seen in recent acts of violence. This “ideology-free terrorism” originates from various online communities and forums in which individuals engage in nihilism and misanthropy that lacks a unified political or ideological motivation that is typically seen amongst violent extremists. This paper will examine these online communities and the potential role they play in radicalizing violent individuals in the absence of a defined ideology.

Toxic Online Spaces and “Ideology-Free Terrorism

Threat and Hazard Components of Somalian Famine: A Case Study

Harry Mochel on December 22, 2022

In the December 2022 edition of the White Paper Series, the Intelligence & Analysis Division examines the ongoing famine in Somalia as a case study to highlight the intermingling of man-made threats with naturally occurring hazards as a potent combination often leading to increasingly severe consequences. The UN estimates 3.2 million Somalis need immediate life-saving assistance. In seeking to understand this crisis, there are multiple threats and hazards that must be addressed. Drought, climate change, and land use are all hazards contributing to the current situation. Additionally, the impacts of political, military, and terrorist groups must be considered.

Threat and Hazard Components of Somalian Famine: A Case Study

Situation Update: Chinese Space Ambitions

Harry Mochel on December 22, 2022

In the November 2022 edition of the White Paper Series, the Intelligence & Analysis Division examines Chinese space ambitions along with recent developments and advancements in China’s space technology, infrastructure, and capabilities. For the last five years China has seen a rapid and innovative progress in space related capabilities and has expanded its space operations into South America and Africa. As seen in the paper’s case studies, China’s space program is rapidly advancing as it seeks to be the main competitor to the U.S. in space capabilities. This rapid advancement in space capabilities by China has contributed to increased security concerns by the U.S. DoD. This paper provides insight into China’s current space capabilities, ambitions, and future goals as it seeks to surpass the U.S. in the space industry.

Situation Update: Chinese Space Ambitions

October 2022

Harry Mochel on October 21, 2022

Threats include:

  • DoD Declines to Add New UCMJ Article for Extremism | Insider Threat
  • Army Doctor and Johns Hopkins Doctor Spouse Charged with Conspiring to Provide Medical Information to Russia | Insider Threat
  • Sabotage Suspected in Nord Stream Pipeline Leak | Foreign Nation-State Military
  • Scientists Working at U.S. Nuclear Lab Recruited by China | Foreign Intelligence Entities (FIE)
  • Anonymous Claims Credit for Moscow Traffic Jam | Cyber
  • Reported Sexual Assaults in the Military Rose 13% in 2021 | Crime
  • Deaths Following Indonesian Soccer Game | Civil Disturbance
  • USMC Fields Small Unmanned Aerial Systems (sUAS) Threat Defense System | Unmanned Aircraft/Unmanned Aerial Systems (UA/UAS)

Hazards include:

  • Installations Unprepared for Tsunamis in Pacific Northwest | Natural Hazards (Geological)
  • Nearly 100% of Hawaii in Drought | Natural Hazards (Meteorological)
  • Largest Wildfires in New Mexico History in May-August 2022 | Natural Hazards (Meteorological)
  • Flooding in Pakistan | Natural Hazards (Meteorological)
  • U.S. Army Grounds Chinook Helicopter Fleet | Accidental Events
RMC Intelligence & Analysis Division Open Source Update – October 2022

An Introduction to Superfund Sites

Harry Mochel on October 1, 2022

In the October 2022 edition of the White Paper Series, the Intelligence & Analysis Division examines the roots of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation and Liability Act, now commonly know as “Superfund.” The long-term impacts of designated Superfund sites have been apparent for decades and will continue to be seen, even as the clean-up and restoration process is underway. This paper will provide an introduction to what a Superfund site designation means, the subsequent legal requirements, and the effects that may be seen over time or are already observed.

An Introduction to Superfund Sites

Accidental Disruption: An Overview

Harry Mochel on September 12, 2022

In the September 2022 edition of the White Paper Series, the Intelligence & Analysis Division examines the subject of accidental disruptions affecting critical systems and infrastructure. An accidental disruption is defined as the unintentional failure or loss of technology, systems, and utilities due to aging equipment and infrastructure, harsh environmental conditions coupled with inadequate maintenance, negligence, or other accidental events.  As seen in the paper’s case studies, accidental disruptions can have significant impacts to the environment, as well as public health and safety. This paper provides a baseline understanding of accidental disruptions and their effects.

Accidental Disruption: An Overview

Foreign Influence on Protest Activity: An Overview

Harry Mochel on August 15, 2022

In the August 2022 edition of the White Paper Series, the Intelligence & Analysis Division examines the relationship between social media, protest activity, and foreign adversaries. Adversaries such as Russia, China, and Iran have bolstered misinformation, disinformation, and malinformation on social media to create chaos, confusion, and division in the U.S. These social media strategies, which generate a more intense and divisive virtual environment, have sought to make U.S. society more polarized, influence U.S. political decisions, delegitimate democratic institutions, and create confusion. This promotion of divisiveness by foreign adversaries has contributed to the formation of protests, rallies, and other similar gatherings in the U.S.

Foreign Influence on Protest Activity: An Overview

July 2022

Harry Mochel on July 15, 2022

Threats include:

  • Influx of Anti-LGBTQ Activity During Pride Month | Civil Disturbance
  • Pro-Abortion Group Jane’s Revenge Attacks Crisis Pregnancy Centers Throughout the U.S. | Civil Disturbance
  • Use of TikTok by Service Members Continues to be National Security Concern for U.S. Lawmakers | Cyber
  • “Incel” Terrorism is a Growing Domestic Threat | Terrorism
  • Chinese Company Purchases Farmland Near Grand Forks Air Force Base | Foreign Intelligence Entities (FIE)

Hazards include:

  • Earthquake in Afghanistan | Geological Hazards
  • Chain of Command Issues Worsened Bonhomme Richard Fire | Maritime Mishap
  • Monkeypox Virus Outbreak Spreads Throughout the U.S. | Biological Hazards
  • Marine Corps Conducts Safety Stand Down after Six Aircraft Mishaps | Aircraft Mishap
  • Extreme Heat Across the Southern United States | Meteorological Hazards
  • Climate Change Impacts the U.S. Electric Grid | Meteorological Hazards
RMC Intelligence & Analysis Division Open Source Update – July 2022

Hazard Seasonality: An Overview

Harry Mochel on July 1, 2022

In the July 2022 edition of the White Paper Series, the Intelligence & Analysis Division examines the subject of meteorological hazard seasonality as it relates to the emergency management process. An understanding of hazard seasons allows planners to predict peak occurrences and drive active risk reduction processes. Additionally, hazard seasonality can be affected by short-term trends such El Niño/ La Niña, as well as the long-term impacts of climate change. This paper provides a brief overview of hazard seasonality (as well as case studies related to flooding and wildfires) in order to enhance stakeholders’ understanding.

Hazard Seasonality: An Overview

Nation-State Research Activities as a Deniable Cover for Espionage

Harry Mochel on June 1, 2022

In the June 2022 edition of the White Paper Series, the Intelligence & Analysis Division examines the foreign nation-state practice of utilizing legitimate scientific/research objectives, programs, and vessels as a deniable cover for espionage activities. U.S. adversaries such as Russia and China have been accused of such activity in recent years, to include the suspected tapping of undersea communications cables and the placing of undersea acoustic sensors near U.S. Naval hubs. In many of these cases, “dual-use” technology capable of both scientific and intelligence-gathering purposes was utilized, allowing deniability for U.S. adversaries.

Nation-State Research Activities as a Deniable Cover for Espionage

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