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The Wagner Group’s Attempted Coup in Russia

In this paper, RMC’s Intelligence & Analysis Division will examine the paramilitary Wagner Group’s attempted coup in Russia. While the group ultimately retreated within the week, the ramifications of these actions were global. The history of the group, an overview of the recent coup attempt, and the impacts to the geopolitical and security landscape will be analyzed. 

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July 2023

Threats include:

  • Military Personnel with Early Discharges Prominent Among Extremists | Insider Threat
  • National Parks Service Removes Cameras Overlooking San Diego Bay | Foreign Intelligence Entities (FIE)
  • Unsolicited Smartwatches Sent to Servicemembers | Foreign Intelligence Entities (FIE)
  • Phishing Attacks Using New Top-Level Domains | Cyber
  • Russian Ransomware Gang Hacks File-Transfer Program | Cyber
  • Missing 14-Year-Old Girl Found at Camp Pendleton | Crime
  • Memorial Day Shooting in Hollywood, Florida | Active Shooter
  • Animal Sedative Xylazine Being Mixed with Fentanyl | Narcotics

Hazards include:

  • Hurricane Season Outlook and Preparation | Meteorological Hazards
  • Heat Warnings and Advisories in Southern U.S. | Meteorological Hazards
  • Space Weather Activity Increasing | Space Weather

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April 2023

Threats include:

    • Russia Hosts Multilateral Arctic Exercises | Foreign Nation-State Military
    • North Korean Hacking Group Targets Cryptocurrencies | Cyber
    • FAA Makes Regulatory Changes to Unmanned Aerial Systems | Unmanned Aircraft-Unmanned Aerial Systems (UA-UAS)
    • National Guard Veteran Arrested for Terror Plot | Terrorism
    • Shooting at Naval Base Coronado Gate | Violent Crime
    • Increase in Fentanyl Deaths Among DoD Personnel | Narcotics
    • Camp Blaz Activation on Guam Met With Protest | Civil Disturbance

Hazards include:

    • Navy Dry Docks Closed for Earthquake Resiliency Improvements | Natural Hazards (Geological)
    • Flooding and Mudslides in California | Natural Hazards (Meteorological)
    • Increased Solar Flare Activity | Space Weather
    • Diesel Fuel Spill at the Maui Space Surveillance Complex, Hawaii | Accidental Events (Human or Technologically Caused)
    • Radioactive Capsule Lost and Recovered in Australia | Accidental Events (Human or Technologically Caused)
    • F-35 Joint Strike Fighter Engine Problem Reportedly Solved | Accidental Events (Human or Technologically Caused)

January 2023

Threats include:

  • Status of Investigation into U.S. Navy Bribery Scandal and the “Fat Leonard” Apprehension | Insider Threat
  • North Korea Escalates Nuclear Threat Against South Korea | Foreign Nation-State Military
  • Former Army Pilot Sentenced for Acting as an Agent for China | Foreign Intelligence Entities (FIE)
  • “Hack Now, Decrypt Later” Attacks Pose Risks due to Quantum Computing | Cyber
  • China-Made Drones Intrude into D.C Airspace | Unmanned Aircraft-Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UA-UAS)
  • Attacks on U.S. Electrical Infrastructure | Terrorism
  • Al-Shabaab’s Threat to Eastern Africa | Terrorism
  • Two Americans Charged for Plotting to Smuggle Military Equipment and Technology into Russia | Property Crime

Hazards include:

  • Storm Systems Across California Trigger Geological Hazards | Natural Hazards (Geological)
  • New York National Guard Soldiers, Airmen Respond to Christmas Eve Snowstorm in Western New York | Natural Hazards (Meteorological)
  • Marine Recruit’s Heat-Related Death Results in Charges | Natural Hazards (Meteorological)
  • U.S. Navy Reports Water Contamination on Aircraft Carriers | Natural Hazards (Biological)
  • Federal Agents to Assist Navy Investigation into Ship Fire | Accidental Events (Human or Technologically Caused)
  • GAO Finds DoD Aircraft Mission Capable Goals Were Not Achieved | Accidental Events (Human or Technologically Caused)

China-Cuba Relations: Recent Developments and Implications for U.S. National Security

In the June 2023 edition of the White Paper Series, the Intelligence & Analysis Division examines recent developments involving the China-Cuba relationship. In recent weeks, open source media reporting has raised the issue of an alleged Chinese signals intelligence collection facility on Cuba. Moreover, the two nations are reportedly discussing the creation of a joint military training facility. This paper briefly examines the history of the China-Cuba relationship, details regarding the aforementioned developments, and the implications for U.S. national security.

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The Use and Consequences of AI: An Overview

In the May 2023 edition of the White Paper Series, the Intelligence & Analysis Division examines recent developments related to the proliferation of Artificial Intelligence (AI) technologies. While AI technologies can be leveraged for productive purposes (such as business innovation and advanced defense systems), they can also be utilized by malicious actors (to include the spreading of misinformation/disinformation). This paper provides a brief overview of AI uses and consequences as they pertain to RMC’s current and prospective clients.

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Technical White Paper: Climate Risk Assessments

In the April 2023 edition of the White Paper Series, the Intelligence & Analysis Division details one of its newest capabilities: the Climate Risk Assessment (CRA). This paper details the organizational need for the CRA process, as well as the elements of said process as conducted by RMC. The CRA is designed to assess climate-related hazards in order to increase the resiliency of an organization’s assets and operations, as well as promote sustainable planning for the future.

Japan Strengthens Defense Strategy: An Overview

In the March 2023 edition of the White Paper Series, the Intelligence & Analysis Division examines Japan’s new National Security Strategy, National Defense Strategy, and Defense Buildup Program, all of which were released in December 2022. This paper examines the regional threat environment, the implications of these policies/initiatives for Japan’s defense, as well as implications for the U.S.-Japan alliance.

Unidentified Aerial Phenomena (UAP): An Examination

In the February 2023 edition of the White Paper Series, the Intelligence & Analysis Division examines unidentified aerial phenomena (UAP). Though mysterious airborne objections have been observed and recorded for thousands of years, recent technical, logistical, and scientific developments have shed new light on UAP events and their potential sources. Of late, the U.S. government has undertaken a more detailed examination of UAP. New avenues of reporting, task forces, and independent studies aim to systematically record, organize, and identify these events and their sources. Sometime such identification is done retroactively, showing us the many forms a UAP may take. UAP could have a wide array of sources, from benign weather events to foreign adversary surveillance. For this reason, the study of UAP is vital for both national security and scientific advancement.

Toxic Online Spaces and “Ideology-Free Terrorism”

In the January 2023 edition of the White Paper Series, the Intelligence & Analysis Division examines recent reports suggesting that an ideology-free form of terrorism may be emerging as seen in recent acts of violence. This “ideology-free terrorism” originates from various online communities and forums in which individuals engage in nihilism and misanthropy that lacks a unified political or ideological motivation that is typically seen amongst violent extremists. This paper will examine these online communities and the potential role they play in radicalizing violent individuals in the absence of a defined ideology.