Introduction
Longstanding tensions and the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran have significantly contributed to the current geopolitical landscape, including ideological divides, nuclear fears, and conflicting visions for the Middle East. Amid Israel’s actions in Gaza in response to the attacks of 07 October 2023, Iran’s attack on Israel with ballistic missiles in 2024 escalated tensions. Isreal subsequently used their air force to dismantle Iranian air defenses, attack military targets, and set conditions for the U.S. to bomb three (3) nuclear facilities in June of 2025. As all sides calculate their next moves, Iran’s proxy militias are targeting Israeli and U.S. forces.
Conflict Origins
The Israel-Iranian conflict commenced with Iran’s Islamic Revolution in 1979. Prior to the revolution, Israel and Iran shared military and diplomatic ties. When the revolution began, ties between the two (2) parties disintegrated, and Tehran’s foreign policy emphasized opposing Western influence. The conflict gave way to decades of ideological tension and Iran’s self-appointed leadership role in the region. As such, Iran has helped arm and support proxy militias like Hezbollah and the more nebulous ideology of Islamic Jihad. Iran has historically leveraged these proxy groups to pressure and harass Israel. Since the start of the conflict in Gaza, the Houthi rebels in Yemen have also targeted Western shipping interests in the Red Sea, disrupting global trade. However, the use of proxy networks is not new and was already underway in 1984 when the U.S. designated Iran as a state sponsor of terrorism.[1],[2],[3],[4]
To further their agenda, Iran has leveraged its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which has its own chain of command and deployable assets separate from the regular Iranian military. Because the IRGC also operates through other groups via its Quds Force (including the Houthis in Yemen, Hamas in Gaza, and Hezbollah in Lebanon), the U.S. Department of State designated its Quds Force as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) in April 2019. While the proxy groups leveraged by the IRGC may not always align ideologically, a transactional relationship exists among them. The proxy groups carry out attacks, and Iran ensures that they receive the proper training, intelligence, money, and weapons for their operations.[5]
Military support to Israel initially began after it was recognized as a nation by President Truman in 1949 and escalated in 1967 following the Six-Day War. Israel has continued to rely upon Washington to improve their technological, military, and strategic capabilities. While tensions in the region may ebb and flow, this support is still leveraged to support shadow warfare by Israel including targeted strikes, cyberattacks, and sabotage operations. These background operations are engaged in by both nations and have deepened the conflict even further, as both Israel and Iran will maintain plausible deniability. However, most recently, the Iranian nuclear program has become a primary target of overt Israeli efforts.[1],[6]
In July 2015, Iran and other world powers announced the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which was an agreement that would limit the enrichment of uranium by Tehran and lift economic sanctions. However, the next presidential administration withdrew the U.S. from the agreement in May 2018. Following the withdrawal, there was an increase in Israeli attacks against Iran’s nuclear program. During 2020, an Iranian centrifuge production plant at Natanz was attacked, and an Iranian military nuclear scientist was assassinated later in the year. Both acts were attributed to Israeli efforts. In April 2021, another major power outage and sabotage event struck Natanz, damaging centrifuge cascades. Israel was the suspected actor but has maintained plausible deniability.[7]
Operation Rising Lion
While Iranian nuclear efforts were initially supported by the U.S. in the 1950s for energy purposes, the 1979 Islamic Revolution ended U.S. support and focused Tehran’s efforts on nuclear weapons. Then in 2012, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu created a “red line” that stated Israel would act if Iran increased their nuclear capabilities and came close to acquiring enough uranium for a nuclear weapon. Iran broke the red line in April 2025 and received a 60-day warning from U.S. President Donald Trump to halt nuclear production. On 13 June 2025, day 61 since the warning, Israel executed a series of strikes targeting the Iranian nuclear threat in what it called Operation Rising Lion.[8]
Named for its Biblical and symbolic roots, Operation Rising Lion is intended to portray Israel as a strong force while referencing pre-1979 Iranian flags through the emblem of a lion standing before a rising sun. The operation’s mission has primarily been to garner international and domestic support and deter Iran’s nuclear plans. On 13 June 2025, Operation Rising Lion was initiated by Israel to target Iranian military and nuclear infrastructure. Israel claimed to have planned the operation for several years. Seven (7) days after the operation began, the U.S. conducted missile strikes on specific Iranian nuclear facilities in Operation Midnight Hammer.[8]
Recent Developments
As of late 2024 and mid-2025, Israel has launched preemptive precision strikes against Iranian-linked facilities related to nuclear research, weapons depots, and missile programs. As shown in the figure below, intelligence confirmed that Iranian nuclear facilities were attacked in Natanz and Isfahan.[1]
Figure 1 – Israeli Attacks on Iran[1]
While these strikes were occurring, regional proxy groups continued to clash with Israeli special forces. Iranian proxy militias in Lebanon also increased the frequency of exercises near the Israeli border and escalated their threats. Hezbollah increased exercises and long-range missile acquisitions. As Iran expanded its reach in Syria, Iranian officials also issued threats of retaliation for future attacks. Warnings increased after the Israeli offensive in June of 2025. During the offensive, Iran attacked Israeli infrastructure with missiles and drones.[1]
In June 2025, Iranian military and nuclear infrastructure have been struck by Israeli drones and warplanes. As Iranian forces continued to attack via drone and missile strikes in June, Israeli forces targeted the Iranian energy industry. However, some Iranian ballistic missiles and drones were able to evade Israeli air defenses and hit buildings in the middle of the country.[7],[9]
In July 2025, Iran’s internal divisions became increasingly evident in the post-war environment. Both hardliners and moderates continued to air opposing views during this time. Moderates have supported de-escalation efforts with the U.S., while hardliners have rejected negotiations over Iran’s nuclear capabilities. Iranian parliamentarians opposed collaboration with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and advised that negotiating with the U.S. could be seen as weakness, which could result in increased U.S. sanctions or subsequent military strikes. However, the U.S. has not expressed interest in entertaining Iranian demands.[10]
Following the June 2025 attack, the E3 (the United Kingdom, France, and Germany) has set a deadline for the Iranian regime to resume U.S. nuclear negotiations. The goal is to work toward a diplomatic resolution of the ongoing nuclear issue and to encourage renewed cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). An Iranian delegation met with E3 officials in Geneva, Switzerland on 26 August 2025 to discuss the potential activation of snapback sanctions. The E3 have indicated that unless Iran confirms a robust agreement, the snapback mechanisms could be triggered, resulting in United Nations Security Council (UNSC) sanctions. Although the E3 offered to postpone the deadline to October 2025 to provide Iran additional time for negotiations, Iran has rejected this extension, citing concerns that it would allow the E3 to activate the snapback mechanism.[11]
Iranian leadership has also rejected reformist officials’ recent calls to evolve its foreign and domestic policies. In a speech by Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on 24 August 2025, reformist calls were rejected, as Khamenei claimed that Iran’s enemies are attempting to sow discord in the country. However, on 13 August 2025 former Iranian President Hassan Rouhani prompted the regime to reduce tensions with the West, make concessions for the Iranian people, and improve social resilience. On 17 August 2025, the Iranian Reformist Front also issued a statement urging foreign policy shifts and political reforms. Khamenei has ultimately rejected these claims and remains opposed to direct collaboration with the U.S.[11]
Regional and Global Implications
The conflict has garnered an international response and significantly increased public attention. The U.S. has also become increasingly involved, with Washington’s continued public support of Israel. With the fear of broader regional war, officials have advised restraint. However, a hedging strategy has been observed with U.S. naval and air assets repositioned close to the Persian Gulf. The escalation of conflict has impacted partnerships and raised concerns over a potential collapse of nuclear non-proliferation efforts. Currently, the international community remains divided.[1]
The potential economic, political, and military ramifications continue to impact both Israel and Iran, the broader Middle East, and global partners as a whole. A larger Middle Eastern war remains the top concern of all parties. Proxy militia groups feed into this fear and may cause the conflict to further escalate. An ill-timed strike might compel outside actors like Jordan, Iraq, and the Gulf states to enter into the conflict.[1]
Despite controversy, even among some of its allies,, U.S. support of Israel has been reinforced during the escalation of conflict in 2025. With eastern Mediterranean and Persian Gulf deployments, U.S. naval forces have served as a deterrent and a force of solidarity with Tel Aviv. Other states like Qatar, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia have had to tread lightly during the conflict. Public opinion has significantly impacted cooperation with both Iran and Israel. Overall, outside governments have promoted de-escalation with the fear of declining their national interests in the middle of the conflict.[1]
In the immediate future, there are multiple courses of action to pursue. These possibilities include prolonged but contained conflict, limited de-escalation, and regional war. Limited de-escalation would require both sides to agree to scale back operations and limit future strikes. This option would involve increased levels of diplomacy and input by neutral parties like Turkey, Oman, or other European entities. The second option of prolonged but contained conflict would involve back and forth attacks such as missile exchanges, cyberattacks, and skirmishes by proxy groups. However, these actions would have to avoid crossing a red line, thereby prompting a larger full-scale war. Both Iran and Israel may revert to this state if tensions stabilize. Finally, regional war would involve various Middle Eastern and global groups, including non-state actors, and would result in civilian casualties, impact regional stability, and weaken the global economy.[1]
[1] Ellis, H. (2025, June 19). Israel-Iran Conflict 2025 Explained: Timeline, Causes & What’s Next. Defense Feeds. Retrieved from https://defensefeeds.com/analysis/conflicts/israel-iran-conflict/.
[2] Kumar, A. (2025, June 15). From 1967 To 2025: A 58-Year Timeline Of Tensions, Hostilities Between Israel and Iran. Times Now. Retrieved from https://www.timesnownews.com/world/ middle-east/israel-iran-war-conflict-timeline-1967-to-june-2025-tensions-missile-attack-tel-aviv-tehran-article-151962721#google_vignette.
[3] Kaur, H., Kottasová, I. (2020, January 20). The US-Iran conflict: A timeline of how we got here. CNN. Retrieved from https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2025/06/world/us-iran-conflict-timeline-dg/.
[4] Byman, D., Jones, S., & Palmer, A. (2024, October 4). Escalating to Wat between Israel, Hezbollah, and Iran. CSIS. Retrieved from https://www.csis.org/analysis/escalating-war-between-israel-hezbollah-and-iran
[5] Council on Foreign Relations. (2023, September 16). A historical timeline of U.S. relations with Iran. PBS News. Retrieved from https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/a-historical-timeline-of-u-s-relations-with-iran?1.
[6] Mansfield, E. (2025, June 24). Timeline: See how 70 years of history led to the U.S. bombing in Iran. USA Today. Retrieved from https://www.usatoday.com/story/graphics/2025/06/24/us-iran-israel-timeline-history-1953-1979-2025/84307399007/.
[7] Associated Press. (2025, June 15). Timeline of tensions and hostilities between Israel and Iran. Associated Press. Retrieved from https://apnews.com/article/israel-iran-timeline-tensions-conflict-66764c2843d62757d83e4a486946bcb8.
[8] FIRM Staff. (2025, June 26). Operation Rising Lion: Israel and Iran at War. FIRM. Retrieved from https://firmisrael.org/learn/operation-rising-lion-israel-and-iran-at-war/.
[9] U.S. Naval Institute Staff. (2025, June 27). Report to Congress on Israel-Iran Conflict, U.S. Strikes. USNI News. Retrieved from https://news.usni.org/2025/06/27/report-to-congress-on-israel-iran-conflict-u-s-strikes.
[10] Rezaei, B., Morrison, N., Borens, A., Wells, K., Schmida, B., Reddy, R., Carter, B., (2025, July 10). Iran Update, July 10, 2025. ISW. Retrieved from https://www.understandingwar.org/ backgrounder/iran-update-july-10-2025.
[11] Borens, A., Rezaei, B., Moorman, C., Fattah, A., Schmida, B., Wells, K., Moore, J., & Ganzeveld, A. (2025, August 25). Iran Update, August 25, 2025. ISW. Retrieved from https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-august-25-2025.